Dow Jones Rally – is the Worst Really Over?

Going by the rate of how Dow Jones going up the roof lately the job of UMNO leaders has been made easier. The local stock market which is talking the cue from the largest stock market in the world will definitely register positive gains and hence the delegates could say economy is getting better (Hey! They’re economic illiterate so what do you expect them to say?) due to UMNO’s leadership *grin*. The Dow registered 497.48 (6.8%) gain to close at 7,775.86 – the fifth biggest points gain in the Dow’s history. Thank to rising in home sales statistic it seem the worst is over and the bottom is history; at least that was some optimistic investors would like to think.

Wall Street cheered on Monday when the Obama administration revealed the plan to take over up to a staggering $1 trillion in toxic mortgage securities with the help of private investors. That’s half of the estimated $2 trillion of toxic assets the banks are sitting on now. But will the cheers sustainable or it was just another one of those bear-rally-trap again? It seems the Obama’s administration particularly Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is still unable to understand the real issue of the U.S. economic problem when he said it was just a temporary liquidity problem. Thus the massive injection into the banks hoping the economic problem will heal itself. 

So, was it really that simple that the problem was the banks are not lending thus choking the lending pipes? It can’t be that the banks stop lending in totality overnight. The truth is the banks are still lending but not as much as they used to pre-crisis. On the same note both the American consumers and businesses have collected too much debts that it has reach the tipping point. And this is precisely what triggered the banks to “re-evaluate” their lending practice – instead of loan-blindly they have to stop giving money to these trouble kids. It would be foolish to close one-eye and keep loaning knowing they can’t pay. And if you ever hear politicians were to say that the banks should not stop lending their money, you know you’re dealing with another sucker politician.

Although Obama administration latest plan to get rid of banks’ toxic assets the express-way is commendable, there’s no guarantee that the bank will start lending again as if the current problem never exist in the first place. It was natural forbanks to be cautious about approving loans even after the bad debts were taken out from their books. In another words cleaning the banks does not necessarily means solving the economy problem. You’re just shifting or rather sweeping the shits under the carpet, the same practices adopted by UMNO. TheAmerican consumers still have debt that may require many more years to clear. The debts will not disappear and you don’t think these consumers can spend the same way they did before the recession, do you?

Sure, the housing sales are rising but that’s because house prices are fallingand naturally there’re some smart people who starts buying although they form the minority group. It would be wonderful if the current rally marks the end of the American economic problem but let’s not make a fool out of ourselves that we’ve found the medicine. The $1 trillion plan could be the booster for now but there’re still many problems yet to be cured. The illness was too serious to be solved by one injection.