Tuesday, March 17, 2009

EPF’s 4.5% Dividend – Your Cheese Eaten by ValueCap?

Nobody likes to hear that their hard-earned money “invested” in EPF is earning pathetic dividend. I mentioned the word invested because your money was “forced” out from your pocket before you can even smell the aroma of the money and both of you (money and you) were cruelly separated on the same day you received your pay-slip. It’s another way to say that your money is working for you (does that make you feel better?) so that when you retire you won’t die a hungry ghost *really?*. And EPF is your custodian because it was deemed that all of you do not have the discipline in saving, let alone the knowledge to grow your money. So it was fair that the caring EPF took the huge burden of this responsibility. And we should be grateful to EPF because they know best on how to invest your money *grin*.

And so the EPF was performing exceptionally well from 1950s to 1980s - the highest dividend ever declared was 8.50% in the golden period of 1983 till 1987. Thereafter the dividend yield has been plunging from the roof. In fact the great era of dividend was fast losing its shine after the 1993 Super Bull-Run. We may never experience the 1993 Super Bull-Run again in many decades to come. Heck, the country has never recovered to the pre-1997 Asia Economic Crisis even until today and we’re already entering the recession again of which our politicians were saying otherwise. Did you notice how the Second Finance Minister Nor Yakcop panicked when asked by reporter about the rumor that EPF was about to declare dividend of only 4.5%? He was almost speechless and was mumbling directionless.

EPF Dividend Yield HistoryThe Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) Board declared a 4.5% dividend for 2008 yesterday for its members, lower than 5.8% declared in 2007. That’s 1.3% lower (than 2007) or 22.41% decrease year-on-year. As usual the blame was on the global economic crisis. However the fact remains that EPF recorded the highest ever earnings of RM20 billion in “gross income” for 2008, an increase of 9.36% over the previous year's gross income of RM18.29 billion. But the “net income” (surprisingly) for 2008 was RM14.26 billion, a decrease of 15.47% over 2007 net income of RM16.87 billion. It’s here where EPF needs to explain – why the 15.47% decrease in net profit despite the 9.36% increase in gross profit? The EPF earned RM6.67 billion from equities in 2008 compared to RM5.37 billion in 2007 so the blame cannot be on stocks investment. So which part of the overall investment portfolios went wrong?

  • Gross income: 2007 = RM18.29 billion ; 2008 = RM20 billion (9.36% increase)
  • Net income: 2007 = RM16.87 billion ; 2008 should be = RM18.45 billion(9.36%)?
  • But now 2008’s net income = RM14.26 billion, short of RM4.2 billion?

The above is of course the dummy way of deriving where the money has gone. Assuming the cost of doing business is the same the above average-Joes calculation reveals more than RM4 billion has disappeared into the thin air. If not what expenses or losses equal to this amount has EPF incurred? This is not RM4 million or RM40 million but a whopping RM4.2 billion we’re talking about here. EPF acknowledged that it was doing fine up until September last year but not thereafter. Could that same amount of money loaned to Valuecap Sdn Bhd (RM5 billion),coincidently occurred at the same period of time, was written off from the accounting book hence the EPF members are getting only 4.5% dividend?

In short, can we assume that the 12 million members’ “dividend money” was used for Valuecap’s so-called equity investment programme? Can the members’ hard-earned money loaned to Valuecap be returned to the rightful owners thereafter then, together with interest of course *boy, I am stupid for asking such question*? You can’t simply take away contributors’ money, presume everything is in order, everyone will forget about it after some grumbling and blame it on global financial meltdown, can you? For God’s sake, we need to have some transparencies here because the money is our only retirement fund. No matter where the money has been siphoned to (if any), EPF contributors are still the victims (or rather suckers) ultimately. Let’s hope the EPF’s total investment funds of over RM342 billion (as at Dec 31, 2008) still exists and this is not another big-time Ponzi-scheme *grin*.

Sucker’s Rally and Sucker’s Advice

People are confuse and can’t think straight. The game is pretty simple, just like the “Big or Small” game on the gambling table in Genting Highland Casino you either place your bet on “Big” or Small”. Nope, there’re no “Odd”, “Even”, “Specific Triples” or other combinations. Both “Big” and “Small” have probability of 48.6% of win. As strange as it looks that the dices could come out as “Big” or “Small” continuously for couple of times without fail before reverse, that’s how the game glued gamblers to the gambling table. Gamblers place their bets when they see the trends and ride on it. The moment “Specific Triples” appears gambler run helter-skelter because that’s the moment of uncertainties and the table is said to be well, “haunted”. If there’s one similarity between the above and stock markets that’s both are casinos, the game of probability.

The only difference is while one is mini-market the other is hypermarket. From nearly 12-year lows the Dow Jones made a spectacular gain of 9% or about 597-points in merely 4-consecutive days of wins to settle at above 7,000-level. Gamblers or punters are wondering if the worst is over. If you’re an institutional player who is playing with other people’s money such as pension funds, insurances funds, mutual funds etc, it doesn’t really matter because your objective was to claim the trophy of being the first to buy at the bottom. If your prediction was wrong so be it. It’s not that you’re going to jail for making the wrong bet. It wasn’t your money in the first. But if you’re betting your own hard-earned money then the wise thing to do is still to become a fence-sitter watching the game. It looks like this is another repeat of the sucker’s rally that happened numerous times already.

Dow Jones Suckers rallySure, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: 
Cstock) CEO Vikram Pandit triggered the much-awaited excitement when his memo about the company making $19 billion in the first two month of year 2009 was taken as the holy bible that the worst is over and the bottom is history. But the memo also said the revenues were excluding“externally disclosed marks” so that’s the question mark. Furthermore didn’t Bear Stearns and Bank of America were equally good in such marketing talks previously? In spite of the operating profit of X amount of dollars one should not fail to see there’re asset losses of X times 100 on the other page of the accounting book. If only it’s as easy as reporting good revenue and all the past losses would disappear as if it never happens. It’s still too early to conclude the worst is over. It’s like comparing this to the Malaysian team who cheers after they scored 1-goal after the complacent Brazilian team scored 20-goals and has no more moods to continue their Samba-game.

Another sucker advice came from former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who advised PM-in-waiting to choose his Cabinet line-up carefully as corrupt leaders could lead to the demise of UMNO (or rather Mahathir’s UMNO Baru?). It’s ironic that Mahathir has the cheek to give such advice considering it was him who designed the factory that produces lowest quality leader possible, not to mention the political model based on cronyism, corruption and nepotism which are still very much alive today. Need we remind him that under his 22-year rule the country flourishes with corruption so much so that his products now are only taking this practice to the next level? He knows that UMNO cannot survive without corruption simply because the survival of the Prime Minister depends on a handful of warlords who in turn are the dirtiest, stinkiest and the most corrupt in the history of the country’s government-ship since independence? So why was he talking nonsense about picking clean leaders?

Mahathir Najib Badawi promisesClearly this old man is not senile given that fact that he acknowledged the backdoor takeover of Perak State by his endorsed PM-in-waiting Najib was not done according to the law. Mahathir also said "UMNO-BN was too careless and did not wait for an assembly but instead asked the Ruler (Perak Sultan) to sack the menteri besar (chief minister)". It may be strange that he only opened his mouth after a month since the takeover occurred which led to the current constitutional crisis. Maybe Mahathir did not anticipated that the Pakatan Rakyat government would fight this battle to the end no matter what, not to mention the “coup” backfired with many Perakians are disgusted with the way it was done. So he decided to go with the trend and said UMNO-BN should have "followed the laws of the country, especially the constitution." But his opinion opened up some questions.

Does it mean the Sultan of Perak has actually erred when he followed blindly the “demand” from Najib Razak when he paid two visits to the Ruler? Mahathir’s statement that UMNO-BN asked the Ruler to sack the menteri besar (Pakatan Rakyat) seems to suggest so. Or could it be that Mahathir in his desperate attempt to repay Najib’s father by pushing the Razak junior to the throne is seeing a bigger problem - the country could be ruled by Najib’s wife, a scenario worst than having a sleepy head Abdullah Badawi driving the country on auto-pilot? The statement by Najib’s wife, Rosmah, that it is time his (Najib) destiny to lead the country couldn’t have come at a worse time when her husband is perceived to be the most tainted candidate in the history of UMNO. Maybe she should just shut-up if she still would like to see his husband sworn in as the sixth PM. Why the haste when everything is in order? Unless of course she smells the Badawi and Anwar’s recent “coincidence” lunch meeting is to be taken seriously.

Rosmah Najib DestinyIn spite of what many think could be the reason why Mahathir went berserk whacking his own-picked successor Abdullah Badawi, the actual reason is none other than that Badawi did not keep his promise to push Mahathir’s own son to become the next rising star – UMNO Youth Chief. Instead Badawi allowed his son-in-law Khairi the free hand not only in running his administration but also to groom him as the next UMNO Youth Chief, indirectly telling Mahathir to fly kite. And this really sent Mahathir’s blood pressure to record high. In reality UMNO is rich with corrupt leaders but only a handful (if you can call that in the first place) of sincere leaders who can put country’s interest above self-interest. Mahathir is barking up the wrong tree and definitely beating around the bush if he thinks Najib would or could announce a corrupt-free team of Cabinet. There simply aren’t enough candidates for such tasks and the old man knows it. Maybe his statement was meant to raise warning to Najib that certain individuals are plotting for his son’s failure in the coming Mar UMNO election and Najib should do something about it.

Anyway UMNO has already reached the lowest level in the political game so much so that it does not only afraid of the opposition party’s influence but also theshadow of the marble plaque installed under the “Democracy Tree”. Only politicians with low intelligence would think by demolish such plague will the opposition lose peoples’ support and erase such a historical moment from voters’ mind. Thus Mahathir’s advice will not work because not only is UMNO corrupted, arrogant, power-crazy, a bully, practice gangsterism and still in denial syndrome but also filled with leaders without proper functioning brains.

Hey Mr. PM Badawi, I have an Apple iPhone too

Apple iPhone is finally here. It’s a must-have gadget especially if you’re looking for the coolest device to brag around. And it’s a perfect gift for your love one. Who could resist this gadget that is loaded with the most innovative technology and tons of applications? Heck, even the sleepy outgoing Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has one although it could take him months if not years just to learn how to use this gadget. And hopefully Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) chief Ahmad Said Hamdan could advise his son not to load the device with any child pornography when travelling into Australia – if he planned to get one (or already have one).

The main reason why iPhone was late to Malaysia market is due to Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: 
AAPLstocknotorious business model that sucks lion share from the service providers’ monthly subscription fees. And to do that requires many months of negotiation between Apple and local service providers and it seems Apple has decided to partner with Maxis in offering the much awaited Apple iPhone. Maxis is offering 4 postpaid plans namely i-Value 1, i-Value 2, i-Value 3 and i-Value 4 with monthly commitment of RM100, RM155, RM250 and RM375 respectively. It was also the hope of Maxis to increase its 3G customer base and usage with the introduction of iPhone 3G that comes with two models – 8GB and 16 GB.

iPhone Coming to TownIf you sign up for the i-Value 4 package (RM375 monthly commitment) over a 24-month period *ouch* you’ll get iPhone 3G 8GB for free (why not the 16GB you stingy Maxis). You can buy Apple’s iPhone at different pricing rate depending on the package that you choose. However it’s advisable to read the terms and conditions before you rush into the plans. Frankly should you rush and make the order now so that you can become the proud owner come 20th Mar 2009? Knowing how creative cell-phones business is it’s a matter of time before you can get the gadget without subscription but to crack it so that you can use it with other provider such as Celcom and DIGI. I’ve come across many friends who has done that so rest assure it works (crack the iPhone). But who can stop you from becoming the first subscriber of Maxis for this iPhone plan?

Maxis iPhone 3G PlanRate Plan Terms & Conditions :

  • 1 Port-in customers are not eligible to sign up for the i-Value Plans with a 24 month contract.
  • 2 The minutes of usage included in i-Value Plans applies to domestic voice calls only.
  • 3 Data included in i-Value Plans applies to mobile Internet usage only and excludes SMS, and other subscription based services. Data bundle is for local usage only. The maximum charge for local usage is up to RM250. While roaming overseas, the prevailing data roaming charges will apply.
  • 4 Advance payment is waived for existing Maxis Postpaid customers with tenure of more than 6 months AND current monthly commitment usage of RM250 and above. Advance payment will be refunded from the 1st month onwards over the next 5 months. The account must be active at the time of refund.
  • Non-Malaysians without an existing Maxis service will have to pay an additional RM1000 refundable deposit. Existing non-Malaysian customer will have to top up to a RM1000 refundable deposit.
  • Purchase of iPhone 3G must be accompanied with any of the above contracted rate plans. Maxis reserves the right to rescind some of the privileges of the rate plans should the registered line not be used with the purchased iPhone 3G.
  • Downgrade of rate plans will be subjected to penalty.
  • Customer needs to ensure that their line is active at all times in order to receive the free data in the Value Plus plans (6 month contract).
  • Use of the iPhone constitutes acceptance of the iPhone terms and conditions and other third party terms and conditions found in the iPhone box.
  • If your Maxis mobile service is in contract and you choose to recontract and purchase an iPhone 3G your existing Maxis contract will stand and you will have another contract running concurrently starting from the date you collect your iPhone 3G. You will only pay the monthly subscription of your new plan, but should you have a temporary suspension of service, downgrading of price plan and termination of line pre-termination and/or liquidated damages charges for both contracts apply.

Mini-Budget or Major-Leakage? Where’re the Goodies?

ajib Razak who will become Malaysia’s sixth Prime Minister in less than a month has revealed the much talked about mini-budget today. Make no mistake about it because going by the quantum of the budget it’s more like a major-budget instead of a mini-budget – a whopping RM60 billion to be spent over two years, 2009 and 2010. But why the extraordinary RM60 billion which is equivalent to 9% of the country’s GDP (gross domestic product) and why spread over two years? Didn’t this Finance Minister claims the country won’t going into recession come rains or shines? Wouldn’t this tantamount to a tight slap onto his face for twisting the facts about the nation’s economy? Maybe he was as clueless as his boss Abdullah Badawi about economy 101 but he can always read the blogs to get some ideas *grin*, can’t he?

The figure RM60 billion is indeed very attractive in title but were there any substances in bringing cheers to the people on the street or at least to attract investments? I think Najib is trying to play safe after his earlier arrogance that the country was insulated from the global recession which saw his balls nailed on the wall for public view. If you read the mini-budget Najib admitted that despite 2009’s original budget of RM206 billion plus the first stimulus package of RM7 billion plus this second stimulus package (also known as mini-budget) of RM60 billion, the country can only afford to see GDP growth of merely negative 1% to positive 1% for 2009. But we still do not know if this GDP (-1% to +1%) growth requires all the RM60 billion to be spent in 2009, forget about the multiple "thrusts" proposed.

To play safe Najib proposed RM60 billion and if the GDP growth is within expectation (-1% to +1%) using only half of the RM60 billion then so much the better and he can claims some trophies. If things go bad and it requires the whole chunk of RM60 billion for 2009 alone then by all means blame it on the worsening global economy and propose more billions for 2010 in the coming annual budget.Either way RM30 billion is insufficient and even if it is enough there’re little spaces left for leakages. You don’t believe the efficiency in terms of procurement and implementation can reach 80% do you? It’s back to the school – aim high shoot low. Furthermore Najib has admitted that both exports and FDI are going down the toilet bowls so he would be foolish to hide under the “we’re insulated from recession” slogan again. Let’s digest what are there on the table for you. 

  • Income tax cut for employees and corporate tax reduction – not a single word can describe the disappointment from the many faces of the people I asked after the mini-budget. So there’s nothing for the average-Joe on this much-awaited goodies.
  • RM674 million in subsidies for sugar, bread and wheat flour – not much effect to the people since the damages from the previous fuel hike to RM2.70 a liter is still around, alive and kicking.
  • RM480 million compensation to toll operators to ensure toll rates remains – but those RM480 million belongs to the taxpayer in the first place, no? And why no proposal to privatize the highways? Sure, how stupid I am to think that would happen because UMNO is the greatest beneficiary from these toll hikes.
  • Government to create 163,000 training and job placement for retrenched workers and unemployed graduates – just make sure unemployed Mat Rempits are not given free money (training allowance etc) but skipped training classes for illegal races *grin*. It would be a great waste to flush the RM700 million into the drains.
  • Tuition fees assistance of RM20,000 and RM10,000 for PhD and Masters program – do you think retrenched and jobless people could still afford such program in the first place?
  • Company’s current year losses be allowed to be carried back to the immediate preceding year – cool but why limit the losses to the cap of RM100,000 per year?
  • Employers who employ workers retrenched from 1 July 2008 be givendouble tax deduction (not exceeding RM10,000 per month) on the amount of remuneration paid – this is a good measure.
  • Government will recruit 63,000 staff to fill vacancies and serve as contract officers in various Government agencies – while the intention is good the same cannot be said about the productivity since it’s more like squeezing more sardines into the already overlapping job functions.
  • Allocation of RM1.95 billion to build and improve facilities in 752 schools, particularly in rural areas as well as Sabah and Sarawak – again make sure the leakages (or rather corruption) can be contained but don’t be surprised if only a fraction of the dollars ended up in such schools. Besides, it was never the intention of the federal government to breed smart people from these two states since it would be easier to control and buy their votes if their status quo remains.
  • RM230 million to increase Sabah and Sarawak’s electricity and water supply coverage – it’s strange that after half a century of independence Sabahan and Sarawakian are still without the basic amenities.
  • More goodies for Sabah and Sarawak with RM1.2 billion allocation for projects such as Sibu Airport expansion, Miri Port, Kota Kinabalu Electricity Transmission System, Queen Elizabeth Hospital etc – again, leakages, leakages and more leakages.
  • Banking institutions to defer the repayment of retrenched workers’ housing loans for one year – as if the bank has other choice and would like to take over these properties which would generate no cash-flow to them. The banks have indeed learnt from the 1997-1998 Asia Crisis.
  • Government will assist in the auto-scrapping scheme whereby a RM5,000 discount will be given to car owners who trade in their cars, which are at least 10 years old, for the purchase of new PROTON or PERODUA cars – why limit it to proton and perodua and not other models as well? Are you trying to simulate the automobile industry as a whole or merely to prevent proton and perodua from going bust?
  • Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad will build and operate a new LCCT at Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) at an estimated cost of RM2 billion which is expected to be ready in 2011 – is this an admission that the current LCCT was built in haste with the intention to force AirAsia to pull its growing passengers to the dying KLIA? I still couldn’t find the real reason why AirAsia could not operate from the Subang Airport but instead to operate from factory-converted-liked LCCT terminal at KLIA.

It was also revealed that from the RM60 billion proposed, RM15 billion is fiscal injection, RM25 billion Guarantee Funds, RM10 billion equity investments, RM7 billion private finance initiative (PFI) and off-budget projects, as well as RM3 billion in tax incentives. So after injected RM5 billion to Valuecap Sdn Bhd previously to invest in undervalued companies now you’re looking at additional RM10 billion for the same purpose? Now you need double the money to help the cronies? And why is it so hard to help the average-Joes by reducing their income-tax so that in the process they have more disposable money which in turn can generate the country’s economy? The country does have the money to spend with such a magnificent mini-budget, no? Anyway let’s hope the RM60 billion is spent wisely although I doubt many would benefits from it.

Monday, March 9, 2009

2009-03-09


Eyes on Stimulus Plan – Can Najib do the Magic?

Economists at the World Bank predicted that the global economy will shrink for the first time since World War II with trades at its lowest in 80 years.You may not like it but it seems this Great Recession that we’re riding on is going to be the longest since World War II, making the 1981-82 and 1973-75 recessions which lasted 16-months each like a tame-rabbit. The 1981-82’s recession was considered the worst in America’s history since the 1929’s Great Depression. The good news – unemployment hasn’t reached 1982 levels, at least not yet. But the Dow’s tumble since its peak in Oct 2007 is worse than the 1929-32’s period with a mind-boggling $11 trillion in market capitalization wiped out.

Even the new U.S. president couldn’t save the day - U.S. stocks have lost $1.6 trillion in market-cap since Barack Obama's inauguration. Billionaire Warren Buffett admitted the U.S. economy has “fallen off the cliff” over the past six months *as if we do not already know*. While it’s true that it’s too late to sell your stocks now many investors are still divided if they should scoop now in anticipation of a mini-rally since the stocks are so, well, cheap now. Nobody dares to declare that the stocks are cheap and we should buy like crazy, not after these so-called experts were burnt on numerous occasions. They’re still haunted by Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, Merrill Lynch, AIG and now Citigroup and General Motors. Time will tell if Barack Obama is another Ronald Reagen *grin*.

Basically everyone is waiting for the worst to come and go and hopefully they can weather it. Yes, that’s right. The worst is yet to come and in certain countries such as Malaysia whose population of less than 30 million were duped by their leader that the country was insulated from the global recession, the havoc that’s coming could create the mess people have not ever seen before. So far unemployment has only affected the manufacturing sector and people are still enjoying themselves as if they’re insulated. Youngsters are swiping their credit cards like there’s no tomorrow and the Mega-Sales still attracted huge crowds, just like during the old good times. But who can blame them when they were not even aware of the previous 1997-98’s Asia Economic Crisis?

All the eyes are towards the much-hyped mini-Budget scheduled to be announced the PM-in-waiting Najib Razak tomorrow, 10th Mar 2009, which would see RM25 billion to $35 billion in stimulus package. Anything less would see severe punishment to the already ailing stock market. Besides the big numbers analysts are also wary if there’re substances to the project or plan associated with the stimulus package. If analysts think that it was another marketing talk (or sloganeering) with little justification and many grey areas as to the implementation and execution then you will witness another round of stocks dumping. People are extra cautious about their investment nowadays and it would be wise to keep their money close to their chest than to put it into local stock market especially with the current political turmoil.

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Friday, March 06, 2009

Citi Stock at $1 a share – Cool; Right Issues - Boo

Who would have thought that the mighty Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: Cstock) could become a penny stock one day? It was unthinkable as the American brand was once the most powerful bank on the planet earth and to flash your Citibank Credit Card was a privilege that Mr. Bean would not get tired of. Citigroup has lost more than 85% of its value so far in 2009 and is 95% below where it was the same time last year. The stock was so worthless that it should be taken out from the NYSE but the authorities relaxed its listing rules to allow stocks under a dollar to maintain their listing. That’s right! Citigroup stock plunged to less than a dollar to RM0.97 a share Thurs 5th Mar 2009 before closed at $1.02 a share.

As superstitious as it may sound Citigroup could fare better if it were to maintain its 137-year-old former red umbrella logo which it sold back to its original owner St. Paul Travelers in 2007. 
Dow JonesIt’s better to have an umbrella for the rainy day, no *grin*? Now who dares to argue the effect or influence of feng-shui in corporate log design? With the stock price basically flushing down the toilet I guess it won’t do any harm for Citigroup board or President Obama administration to consult feng-shui expert on this matter. Heck, even Malaysia CIMB’s Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Berhad (KLSE: COMMERZ, stock-code 1023) which is fighting neck-to-neck with country’s (previous?) biggest lender Malayan Banking Berhad (KLSE: MAYBANK, stock-code 1155) for the number-one spot has market capitalization higher than Citigroup.

Bumiputra-Commerce has market value of over RM22.2 billion against Citigroup’s RM20.5 billion ($5.56 billion), which has since slides as the 184th biggest bank by market value. Citigroup which was worth more than $277 billion in late 2006 is now under pressure and could see the stock taken out from the DJIA’s 30 blue-chips companies. At this juncture you might be wondering if you should get yourself a cup of coffee, a pack of chewing gum or a share of Citigroup. After China failed to deliver the much-hype stimulus package and General Motors Corp.’s warning of a collapse, the Dow plunged another 280-points *yawn* to 12-year low at 6,594.44. And the freefall to test the 6,000 support level could be reached within this month alone *scary*.

Citigroup Stock ChartNow do you know why I keep on screaming “Cash is King” and “Preserve your Cash”? Don’t you feel good looking at your escalating buying power now? Andplease ignore the cash calls or right issues proposed by those so-called blue-chips such as Maybank, TM International Berhad (ignored such call), HSBC, DBS, CapitaLand and whoever next in the queue. Unfortunately if you’re already one of the shareholders you may see your holding’s value further diluted once the right issues exercise completed. As a matter of fact your money could have sucked up indirectly as a result of poor management (such as in Maybank’s regional banks acquisition) or simply leakages (hanky-panky in Indonesia’s BII deal?).

You do not need to become a rocket scientist to know that to have Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) and Employees Provident Fund (EPF) agreed whole-heartedly in subscribing 55.7% and 13.7 % respectively of the RM2.74 a piece right issues are tantamount to “bailout” Maybank. And PNB is asking for another 20% in excess of the right issues? This is almost the same like AIG holding the U.S. government hostage at gunpoint when it demanded another $30 billion in loans, in addition to the $150 billion it has already been given. Therefore why should you subscribe to the right issues especially during current bearish market?

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Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Great Recession’s Scope is Deep and Broad

Like it or not we may be entering the Great Recession without us realizing it and only time will tell if we’re indeed walking into the history. So how does it feels or just how comprehensive is this so-called Great Recession? In reality unless you’re in the manufacturing or other vulnerable sectors and have been laid off you would probably making fun about this recession. What recession? You may ask. But you may want to save that for another day because it’s still too early to tell if you would be the next victim. In the United States the job losses demonstrate both deep and broad with almost every state affected as if were plague by incurable disease.

Some points for your consumption:

  • This (Great) Recession is causing much more job loss among the less educated than among college graduates - construction workers, hotel workers, retail workers and others without a four-year degree were affected the most.
  • This (Great) Recession is hurting men more than women, hurting homeowners and investors more than renters or retirees.
  • The city affected the most in U.S. is El Centro, an agricultural area of California, of which the unemployment rate registered a staggering depression like 22.6 percent.

US Unemployment Map CoverageAccording to a report by ADP Employer Services private sector job losses increased in February with private employers cut 697,000 jobs in Februarycompared with 614,000 jobs lost in January. Economists’ estimation for February job losses were 610,000. President Obama on the other hand is hoping that his plan to help up to 9 million home borrowers via refinanced mortgages modified to lower monthly payments will bear fruits. Obama also intend to revamp wasteful spending especially the way federal contracts are being awarded. It was hoped tens of billions of dollars could be saved when the procurement process are to be refined.

This morning’s recovery in Dow Jones is merely technical rebound after 5-days of selling and investors or traders should take profit (if there’s any). Obviously investors are overly optimistic that China will soon announce a big stimulus package. In the current situation any measure that could help to calm investors are welcome but to overly depend on such (China) stimulus package is suicidal.

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Tuesday, March 03, 2009

We don’t live on trees. We conduct Assembly under the tree

Two scariest (or rather amazing) things are to be remembered as we entered the month of Mar 2009. First – the Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally breached the 7,000-level when it closed at 6,763.29; a loss of almost 300 points. The Dow hadn’t traded below 7,000 since Oct. 28 1997 – 11 years ago. It was selloff right from the beginning of trading bell thanks to American International Group Inc.’s (NYSE: AIGstock) after it reported a staggering losses of $61.7 billion in the fourth quarter, by far the biggest quarterly loss in the United States corporate history. The government said it would give American International Group Inc. another $30 billion in loans, in addition to the $150 billion it has already given the insurer. Sometimes you wonder if it was a mistake to rescue this AIG as the debt-hole could be bottomless.

New York-based AIG said it lost $22.95 per share in the last three months of 2008 and its revenue fell to negative $23.8 billion. It’s true that AIG is holding the U.S. government hostage at gunpoint. This beast will continue to suck up many more billions of taxpayer money and the President Obama can’t even lift a finger because AIG is simply too huge to be killed. With over 74 million customers worldwide and operations in more than 130 countries AIG can basically relax while asking for tens of billions more whenever the need arises. It’s a never-ending parasite that has so far consumed about $173 billion of taxpayer money. Now people who rubbished the “Depression” but adopted the “Great Recession”word are now worrying about “depression” (smaller “d” to mean mild depression, if that will make you happier).

I’ve wrote about the potential of depression months ago and why you should not enter the stock market yet (unless you’re a swing trader who knows how to scalp for fast profit) so I’m not going to nag about it again, lest your hobby is to catch a falling knife so that you can show the trophy to your grandchild of your achievement *grin*. By now you should know that one of the rules in stock investing is not to follow the crowds especially the wrong crowds during such moment. Stay sideline, preserve cash and wait for the right moment to make the killing. Of course if you’re into U.S stocks then you should be laughing all the way to the bank with Put Options, Writing Covered Puts, Short-Selling, Spreads and etc. Tips: KLSE still has a long way to go *down*.

Perak State Assembly Under TreeSecond remembrance of the month – fresh state election could be around the corner in Perak state. In a historic move an emergency meeting of the Perak State Assembly was convened this morning with three motions passed, under a tree about 200 meters from the state secretariat building:

  • First motion: confidence in Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin as the legal Perak mentri besar;
  • Second motion: an agreement to seek Royal consent for the dissolution of the state assembly
  • Third motion: the adoption of the suspension of Zambry Abdul Kadir as the menteri besar and six executive councillors he appointed.

Perak State Assembly Under TreeI believe after this many gamblers and 4-D punters will build a shrine under this tree hoping to strike it big as this is the first time in the country’s 50-year of independence that a state assembly is being held under a tree. The writing is on the wall and constitution that the Speaker (the person they forgot to buy over) of the Legislative Assembly of Perak is entitled in law to convene the Legislative Assembly for today, March 03, 2009. However the police who only serve the present government that is tainted with corruption has proven to be a reliable business partner yet again *applause* – desperately set-up road blocks and barred the main entrance of the state secretariat building to prevent the proceedings by state representatives voted by the people.

The shivering and probably the shortest-term serving menteri besar (if you think he’s the legal one), Zambry Abdul Kadir, who rushed his team to London seeking professional advices and assistance from the Queen Counsels (QCs) was at lost on how to salvage the situation mainly because his path to the chief minister-ship was being architected with haste and consists of many loopholes. Besides the biggest flaw in buying over the wrong person (Deputy Speaker instead of Speaker) it also did not understand the concept of prorogued and adjourned. In another words if it was prorogued (dissolved) then only the Sultan of Perak (Ruler) can summon the Assembly else if it was adjourned (postponed) then the Speaker can convene.

Tarzan going for State Assembly under treeAnd according to constitutional expert Tommy Thomas since the Third Sitting of the First Session of the 12th Legislative Assembly of Perak was actually “adjourned” (postponed) sine die in November 2008, the Speaker has the right to recall the assembly into session. Hey, don’t blame the constitutional experts and the written laws because it was the previous BN government that granted the Speaker with such power. So why play the pathetic childish dirty game of crying for the police to block the proceedings and dragging the Ruler into the picture? Thankful they didn’t asked the same street gangsters UMNO Youth to set-up road blocks and take over the state secretariat.

It’s not game-over yet for the powerful BN government, mind you. Rest assured that the BN government will be using the controlled-Judicial from now onwards to the fullest to frustrate its opponents. With the police (and army?) at its disposal the desperate government could easily invoke 
Internal Security Act (ISA), State of Emergency or Operasi Lalang (Part II). However the old and obsolete method of using the Operasi Lalang may backfire judging from the Hindraf case-study. People are more connected nowadays thanks to technology such as hand-phones and blogs. Also it would be foolish to choose a State of Emergency strategy since it would send foreign investors packing. You don’t think foreign investors do not follow on such developments, do you? Nevertheless the ball is not in the court of the Sultan of Perak now.

Obama asked how Badawi Block SpeakerThis episode may be the new model of democracy to be adopted by the current federal government of BN but it definitely raised many U.S. Republican and Democratic eyebrows of how advance this country is. United States may have the most sophisticated, highly trained and technologically advanced military force in the world but Malaysia has the most sophisticated, creative and best democracy model the world had ever seen. There’re certainly many more other innovative creations that the western and the world should learn from this country called Malaysia. By now the world should know that Malaysians do not live on trees but instead conduct State Assembly under the tree and this alone would take others centuries to learn *proud, grin*.

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Monday, March 02, 2009

Can the Street Gangsters face Recession Alone?

Malaysia‘s GDP (gross domestic product) registered a growth of 4.6% for 2008, shrunk from 6.3% recorded in 2007 and lower that earlier projection growth of 5% (for 2008). However the fourth quarter’s (Oct-Dec 2008) growth was at disturbing 0.1% growth compared with 4.7% in the third quarter. That’s if you believe these numbers have not been cooked *grin*. Anyway giving the honest politician and finance ministry the benefits of doubt Malaysia was actually doing better *applause* than neighbor Singapore which was in negative territory – 4.8% contraction in the fourth quarter.

Previously Second Finance Minister Nor Mohamed Yakcop claimed that the government expects a 3.5% growth for 2009 despite a global economy downturn because the trick was the RM7 billion fiscal stimulus package. Immediately the PM-in-waiting and Finance Minister Najib Razak rushed to declare that there’s no possibility that Malaysia will enter recession this year. Now the Second Finance Minister who was also said to be the person who wiped out a whopping RM30 billion of nation’s money from forex speculation losses between 1992 to1994 issinging a different song, asking Malaysians to accept the reality that the global financial havoc is expected to prolong till next year and probably will affect the country.


Of course you can bet your last dollar that Najib will not open his big mouth again claiming something which even the first year economic students think otherwise, at least for now. After Citigroup and Nomura Holdings said Malaysia will see economic contraction of 1.5% and 4% respectively this year, RHB Head of Research Lim Chee Sing say the country is already in recession or perhaps is entering the recession depending on your definition of it. Malaysia’s export and industry production index have both contracted for the third month and if this is your measurement then the recession has already entered your door.

You may not like it and the politicians especially the PM-in-waiting who will be sworn in as the country’s sixth Prime Minister in another month may want to hide the fact but it appears that Malaysia may need to fight this recession alone.Despite President Obama’s jaw-dropping ambitious $1.75 trillion deficit budget to turnaround U.S. dying economy the first black president is expected to meet huge obstacles from both the Republican and the Democratic. Europe is having its own economic problem as its eastern poor members such as Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic and others are begging for help. Even China with its 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) plan to shield the country from economic slowdown is talking about the potential of the global recession disease spreading into the country. Everyone has their own problems.

Hence, instead of fighting a losing battle of regaining BN (or rather UMNO?) dignity via back-door capture of opposition states and in the process loses the people’s support it’s wise for Najib’s new administration to concentrate in combating the Great Recession (yeah I know I’ve wrote about this previously but you have to remind the empty vessel how to sail back home). The country may have the money to implement the much awaited second stimulus package (don’t ask me what happens to the first one) but the biggest question mark is whether there’s political will to be transparent and put in place an effective execution or implementation for the plan to succeed. But looking at how the leaders behave and manage their respective institutions you don’t need a rocket scientist to tell if leakages will prevail ultimately.

You can’t simply have a properly functioning brain if you think it’s alright to have a government whereby over 20 UMNO Youths were given easy access to an institution such as the Parliament so that these thugs can harass a helpless and wheelchair-bound Member of Parliament Karpal Singh. Strange as it may look but these disgusting, shameful and barbaric gangsters are nothing more than a bunch of cowards who only knows how to bully the weakest and if you happen to suggest they put on the same act against the Israel troops in the Gaza territory (one-way free tickets sponsored) or probably to have one-to-one fight with PAS supporters, chances are they would run or cry like babies begging for mercies. And don’t think for a second that these mobsters will not come to steal and rob from you if the economy turns for the worst *let’s pray this will not happen, shall we?*.

Vijandran Ahmad Said SexEqually sad is to have chief commissioner of the newly cosmetic-upgraded Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), Ahmad Said Hamdan, who thought it was perfectly alright for his son to import child pornography into Australia as he believes it was comparable to just a minor traffic offence. As long as you pay the summons then the story should ends there *and commit the same offence again?*. Also the chief commissioner does not think he should be linked to his son’s (child pornography) offence as if he didn’t play any part in his son’s upbringing. But the most puzzling yet amazing part was he actually endorsed his son’s action when he exclaimed that his son’s disgusting child pornography could be found on most men’s cell-phones. Now this is what I call a pervert mentality and I dare not imagine the contents of his hand-phone. He could have video clips that if revealed, would be more explosive than former deputy 
Speaker Vijandran’s 1988 sex video scandal.