2008-01-19

Friday, January 18, 2008

Great time to make money on Baidu Stock

Blood was running thick at Wall Street Thursday when the Dow Jones plunged 306 points, the lowest level since Mar 2007 and the worst three-day percentage decline since October 2002. Investors were seen selling in big wave after Federal Reserve report showed a sharp and unexpected decline in manufacturing activity – a negative reading of 20.9 from negative 1.6 in Dec. Moody's Investors Service placed bond insurer Ambac Assurance Corp. on review for a possible downgrade instantly raised the concern that bond insurers would be unable to absorb a spike in claims.

The Dow which is now at 12,159.21 has only about 150 points above 12,000 – a dangerous level of which if breached could see more panic sellers emerge. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index (known as the VIX) and often referred to as the "fear index," jumped nearly 17 percent Thursday. With this it’s very obvious that Ben Bernanke’s job has been made easier – no other choice but to cut rates. So if you’re currency trader, you should know which currency to short.

However, in such scenario there’re still aplenty of opportunity to make money – stocks, options, currency, metal such as gold etc. Just take a look at Baidu.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIDU, stock). It was roughly two weeks ago when StockTube mentioned that Baidu.com which was in mourning mood could goes down another $20 from $370 to $350 a share. The stock went down allright but I wasted no time to take money off the table when it rebound and tried to stay above $350. You might think the story ended there and then.

Early of this week, somehow I fell in love with Baidu.com as it seems to begging and asking me to short the stock or trade the Put Option. To be fair, the overall market pulse wasn’t on Baidu.com’s advantage. The stock drops like a rock and I concluded that Baidu.com probably loves Scottish actor, Gerard Butler, a lot – so much so that the stock not only didn’t rest at $300 as I anticipated but digged its grave-hole deeper than that. So where is Baidu.com heading? Probably the stock might makes a pit-stop at $220 before going down to $200 level. Anyhow I’m not closing my Put Option positions yet. At this moment I hope Baidu.com could help me to break my own record of 486 percent profit in Google.

And talk about Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock), the stock is being punished from top, bottom, left and right till the current level of $600 a share. Not a nice sight though if you look at the 1-year chart as the stock could easily slide to $520 level. Nevertheless I believe there should be a technical rebound soon. Of the three stocks within my radar, only Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) seems to show some kungfu-fighting.

So what’s my strategy for Friday? Close all my profitable Put Options of course, since it’s the expiration Friday.

Other Articles That May Interest You … 

• Make Money scalping AAPL, not enough for MacBook Air
• BAIDU Stock’s resting target might be at $300
• Spectacular last 90 minutes cheers to Tech-Stocks
• Take Money off the table on Baidu, watchout for Apple
• Baidu mourning while Google and Apple near support
• My biggest Profit in Option Trading – 486 Percent

Thursday, January 17, 2008

How you’re being taken for a ride by the Suckers

By now everybody in the urban area knows about the general election’s heat that is gaining momentum. Left are the rural people who rely only on electronic and print media, both are controlled by ruling government, for news and happenings. As much as the government has trumpetted the feel-good factors just short of brainwashed them physically, the inflation is getting out of hand. Forget about the government’s inflation figure that seems forever stagnant at 3 percent or so. Yeah right and the price of a plate of chicken rice costs only RM2.00.

Recently there was this argument between the opposition party and the deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia. With the ruling government’s election machinery at full speed the opposition told potential voters that if the opposition comes into power, they will utilize the gigantic profits from national oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) to subsidize the current high fuel prices by reduce instead of hike it. The deputy Prime Minister counter-attacked that should the opposition did what it said, the country will go bust - bankrupt.

You don’t really need to be a rocket scientist to conclude how the deputy Prime Minister misled the public with his statement. Is Malaysia that fragile? Thank God Malaysia is not ruled by absolute monarchy like Brunei but that didn’t stop the ruling government from milking the revenues from Petronas to the last drop. Isn’t it puzzling that despite tons of natural resources such as tin, rubber, palm oil and crude oil the country continues to have foreign debts and now even on the brink of bankruptcy if you reduce the fuel prices (meaning increase the subsidy). Where has all the nation’s wealth gone to all these years? Perhaps the conversation below which I picked up days ago could summarize the “effectiveness” or rather the “corruptness” of the current government. 

• Customer: Boss, can you reduce the price of the baby milk powder?
• Shopowner: Sorry but my margin is very slim. I’m sure you’ve scouted around to know that my price is reasonable.
• Customer: Yeah, nowadays to raise a baby is such a hard task.
• Shopowner: Yes, it is – is this your first baby?
• Customer: Yes, that’s why I’m scouting around for the best price without sacrificing the quality.
• Shopowner: Understood how you feel. Well, I thought I should let you know that most of the milk powder’s prices will be increased by Feb 2008.
• Customer: What? **the customer was cursing for a couple of seconds – F&$#@ ** But I thought our currency has strenghten. What’s the rate now? It was RM3.80 to a US dollar but now its’ RM3.30 right?
• Shopowner: Heck, its RM3.20 something now.
• Customer: Are all these milk powder made in Malaysia?
• Shopowner: Nope, mostly are from overseas but probably some packaging are done here.
• Customer: So why the prices increase despite the strong local currency?
• Shopowner: You wanna know why? Let me tell you what happen to my friend who’s a property developer. He won a RM100 million government contract and his profit is about two to three million net after being squeezed by the government, time is bad you know. But do you know how much the particular government agency asked him to mark up?
• Customer: Another RM10 million?
• Shopowner: My friend was asked to mark-up by another RM180 million - now the whole project is roughly RM380 million. ** this time it was the shopowner who was cursing F&$#@ **. We were working like a dog but they just sit inside their comfy air-cond room yet could pocket RM180 million profits net. ** continue to curse again **
• Customer: Huh ** scratching head unbelievable **? No wonder some politicians said the country will go bust.
• Shopowner: That’s the fact. So, do you still want the milk powder? I’m sorry but I can’t go any lower than that.
• Customer: Give me a dozen.

So, do you know why the country could actually fall apart despite blessed with natural resources? The deputy Prime Minister didn’t lie when he warned about the potential of nation’s bankruptcy. Considering a project could be ballooned twice the actual amount, you really need to do your part by paying more for the fuel. You don’t want the nation to collapse, do you? But what’s the moral of the story?Stock-pile your milk powder dude!

Other Articles That May Interest You … 

• With KLCI above 1,500, what’s your plan now?
• Why Can’t Public Enjoy the Benefits of Strong Ringgit?
• Oil price hike – Badawi’s greatest Economic Challenge
• Is Malaysia's Coffer Out of Money?

Make Money scalping AAPL, not enough for MacBook Air

Don’t you love it when you can make money both ways – stock market up or down? The stock market will be more efficient if only the rest of the regional markets such as Malaysia and Singapore allow full-blown “long” and “short” to be implemented. The talks or rather excuses that short-selling would collapse their respective market faster than ever is only myth. When the market is efficient, the direction of the stock markets will be depends solely on supply and demand.

Decided to scalp Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) this morning (and closed the position just now) after I was satisfied with the fast bucks but the main reason was the rebound in the technology stocks and the Dow (scare a little out of me). Again I’m not sure what will happen to the final scores for both Dow and Nasdaq after the closing later today but as long as your position is profitable, there’s no harm in locking the profit (I know I’ve making the same point over and over again). Heck, the profit is not enough to get me the MacBook Air *sigh*.

Frankly there’s nothing wrong with Apple Inc. even after the not so promising Macworld yesterday. The company is doing great and will continue to perform. Just that when all the signs are pointing to a bearish trading pattern, you just can’t ignore your itchy hand from punching the keyboards to scalp the stock(s) to make a little money off the markets. Boy! Did anyone noticed how Baidu.com, Inc.(Nasdaq: BIDU, stock) reached the $300 level today? Congratulations to readers who short the stocks or pull the Put Option string. As for StockTube, I decided to hold on to my Put Option on this fellow. It might try to rebound but I think the stock could not go up very far. I’m beginning to like Baidu.com.

Other Articles That May Interest You … 

• Forget about stocks plunge, I want the MacBook Air
• BAIDU Stock’s resting target might be at $300
• Spectacular last 90 minutes cheers to Tech-Stocks
• Take Money off the table on Baidu, watchout for Apple

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Forget about stocks plunge, I want the MacBook Air

With such pessimism over the US economy, never mind if it’s exaggerated, Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) needed a stronger steroid than last year’s iPhone announcement to push up its stock price. The fact that the stock price plunged during and after Steve Jobs presentation should be expected. News that Citigroup Inc. had lost nearly $10 billion in the fourth quarter as it wrote down mountains of bad mortgage assets couldn’t come at the better time.

The Wall Street is set for another day of selloff today, Wednesday, after technology leader Intel Corp.’s failure to meet earnings and revenue forecasts for the fourth quarter – worsen by first quarter lower guidance. JPMorgan Chase & Co. might offered a relatively light-weight first-quarter earnings as it took a writedown of $1.3 billion but the bank warned of difficult conditions ahead in 2008. Stocks slide aside let’s see what Apple Inc. offered at its Macworld.

[ 1 ] MacBook Air – I can swear that Steve Jobs stole the idea of “Air” from Nike Inc.’s Air range of shoes to denotes feather-light products. I thought my existing Fujitsu S7000 series notebook was one of the lightest in its range until I saw how “Thinovation” Apple Inc. can be. It’s now officially the world’s thinnest notebook – as thin as your index finger (is yours at 0.8 inches thick?) but packed with:

• 13.3 inch widescreen LED display,
• 1280x800 resolution,
• 2GB RAM, 80GB hard drive,
• 1.6GHz or 1.8GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor,
• built-in iSight camera, only single USB,
• 5-hours battery, 802.11n Wi-Fi and Bluetooth 2.1 + EDR

However Steve’s imagination might have cost the notebook its DVD drive and a removeable battery. But he argued the new notebook is designed specifically for wireless world (you heard that Streamyx) and if you insists on software installation via DVD or CD (else you’ll throw a grenade at Steve), you can “borrow” the optical drive of a Mac or PC wirelessly via new feature called Remote Disc (hmm, can I borrow money wirelessly?). The notebook is gorgeously priced at $1799 for the above specification. If that’s not enough to blow you off your chair, wait till you hear how you can backup wirelessly.

[ 2 ] Time Capsule – the latest product that could transport you to Enterprise Spaceship or back to the period of Jurassic Period, roughly two-hundreds million years ago. How I wish. It’s actually a backup device that works wirelessly with Time Machine gizmo in Mac OS X Leopard to automatically backup all your data into this piece of, well, Time Capsule. The main attraction is the huge capacity of 500GB or 1TB of disk space to store your valuable data, or 250,000 songs. The speedy 802.11n-connection device is priced at $299 only.

[ 3 ] iPod Touch new Apps – Steve just can’t leave his darling alone without some minor touches, can he? So here you have the new features which you guess it, borrowed from iPhone, such as Mail, Google Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG, stock)’s Map, Web Clips, Stocks, Weather, Notes and Movies and Music. It’s not free though but is selling for $19.99.

[ 4 ] iPhone Update – still no GPS yet? Hey I thought since you’re talking to Japan’s DoCoMo, you should have it ready, no?

[ 5 ] Apple TV – after the disappointed version 1, this second version of Apple TV looks relatively promising since it no longer requires a computer to pull content off of the Internet and it offers movies in high definition. In an aggressive move, Apple cut the box's price from $299 to $229 and said existing Apple TV owners could get the new features through a free software upgrade.

[ 6 ] iTunes Movie Rentals - launched a movie rental service at its online iTunes Store partnering six major movie studios to supply content. Rental prices range from $2.99 for library titles, $3.99 for new releases, and $1 extra for high-definition versions. The service which will roll out internationally later this year will work on Macs, Windows-based machines, iPhones, iPods or the Apple TV set-top box.

Although the stock price suffered, longtime Apple watchers say thedisappointment won't last. They justified that ultimately the new lineup will help Apple take fuller advantage of the demand it's already created among both Mac fans and the swelling ranks of consumers weighing a jump from PCs to the Mac. Furthermore just like music, movies are part of people’s live. Piper Jaffray’s analyst think thinks the MacBook Air could become Apple's best-selling portable, resulting in a 10% increase in the number of Macs sold this year. Time to continue accumulating Apple Inc.'s stock?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• BAIDU Stock’s resting target might be at $300
• Earnings season started, Ben to be nicer this time?
• Take Money off the table on Baidu, watchout for Apple

Solution and comparison for bad credit loans

It’s not easy to suddenly find yourself stuck with thousands other consumers categorized as “bad credit” customers. And it’s definitely no fun at all to accept the fact that you’re trapped in the current housing crisis. However life goes on and you should find the best bad credit loans available to slowly take care of your problems. By making prompt payments, you can actually rebuild your credit.

There’re bad credit for home loans, credit cards, auto loans and other information out there which you should compare to optimize your current situation (if you’re one of the unfortunate persons). The business of company offering such services are mushrooming and the competition amongst these businesses means you’re spoilt for options. 

Some of this bad credit loans providers are providing standard facilities such as free expert advice with no obligation, social security number is not required, no application fee and even claims that you could consolidate your debts and reduce payments by a whopping 50 percent or more.

*sponsored*

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Tony’s AirAsia, to Privatise or Not to Privatise

As an organization AirAsia Berhad (KLSE: AIRASIA, stock-code 5099) could easily be a role model or case study for many top executives on how a bankrupt company could be revived to become a profitable and most successful low-cost carrier in Asia. With the correct management and right business model the dead could rise from the grave. And Tony Fernandes is perhaps one of the most recognizable figures in the corporate world especially in the aviation field.

As much as he would like it, there’s something that Tony couldn’t do regardless of how excellent he is in managing and marketing AirAsia. He couldn’t control the stock prices of his flagship AirAsia, unless he enlists himself together with people like Vincent Tan to fry his own stocks. Unlike national carrier, Malaysia Airline System (KLSE: MAS, stock-code 3786), Tony knew the government will not bails his company should something happens. To ensure sustainability, AirAsia has its’ own fuel-hedging policy to ensure its’ profitability (and survival) which in turns depends very much on global oil prices; also to ensure the company is not wiped out due to the black gold’s volatility.

However excessive hedging might not goes well with foreign shareholders such as T. Rowe Price International, Inc. who opted to dispose the AirAsia shares. Hence the speculation the frustrated Tony Fernandes might take the company private, to which he denied it yesterday. The CEO told Bloomberg in an interview that the airline has call options that will offset potential losses from an earlier derivative contract. He further added that AirAsia is shielded even if the oil prices hit $130 a barrel.

As such theoretically AirAsia had actually bought call options up to $130 a barrel to hedge against oil prices within six months. In other words, is Tony somehow awares that the oil prices could shoot up above $100 and even $130 in the next six months? If not could the call options bought rather excessive and speculative in nature? Maybe Tony is a buddy of President George Bush and knew that the US is going to rains Iran with Tomahawk missiles by then.

Nevertheless nobody can blames Tony if he indeed decided to privatise AirAsia in the near future should the stock price remains at current gloomy level. But then airline industry is a risky business that even Warran Buffett would advise against investing.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• MAS offers low fares but Tiger Airways is giving Free
• Monopoly No More, AirAsia to fly to Singapore
• Tony Fernandes - The Truly Air Asia Hero (Part 1)
• Tony Fernandes - The Truly Air Asia Hero (Part 2)

BAIDU Stock’s resting target might be at $300

China is the largest market that every Tom, Dick and Yahoo trying to get into but the reality is the country with more than 5,000 years of civilization is not a country that offers you the golden key to instant riches just because you’ve the money to invest. It’s a complicated nation that could dry your money before you could blink your eyes. The nation has become the specialist in manufacturing that if you’re trying to shift your factory there hoping to leverage on its low costs of production, chances are you might fail miserably if you didn’t do your homework. And this applies to other sectors as well.

So when Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO, stock) and even Google Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG, stock) tried their luck there, they were met with stiff competition from local rivals such as Baidu.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIDU, stock). China’s almost 100 million broadband users and 20 million bloggers is nevertheless a huge market by itself. And if a survey reported that Chinese web young users of between 16 and 25 years of age depend heavily on internet than anybody else is anything to goes by, one will tends to rush stockpiling Baidu’s stocks.

But sometimes things would not go the way you want it to. If the CFO dies, normally a company could face a minor hiccup before recovering; but what do you get if this happened to Baidu? It comes crumbling down like a rock. I mentioned the $350 was the support and if that couldn’t hold, the stock could see another $20 flushed into the toilet of which it did. You’re watching the poor Chinese-version of Google crawling helplessly to keep its head above the $330 water-level. In normal circumstances the stock should hold well but considering that the overall market sentiment is so weak, Baidu might as well let go and sink like the Titanic.

Did you watch the movie “300”? I think Baidu.com is heading to that level and if you care to read my previous article, you should know how I played this stock. There’s something funny about stocks investing. When something goes wrong and there’re not much catalysts that could jump-start the dying battery, the stock would eventually heading south. Most importantly the $300 support is stronger than the $330 and hence, don’t bet your last penny on $330 as the bottom. Meanwhile did you noticed how Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) take off before Steve Jobs takes the stage tomorrow, 15th Jan at the 2008 Macworld Conference and Expo?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Spectacular last 90 minutes cheers to Tech-Stocks
• Take Money off the table on Baidu, watchout for Apple
• Baidu mourning while Google and Apple near support

Monday, January 14, 2008

With KLCI above 1,500, what’s your plan now?

It’s not easy for Malaysian Stock Exchange’s Composite Index to reach 1,500 level, let alone 1,600 but it appears reaching 1,600 is not something that is impossible now. And if you believe in simple technical reading, since middle of Aug 2007’s correction, the bull didn’t look back judging from the linear regression lines. Simply puts, the lines are drawn by technical analysts to see if the trend goes according to the pattern – within the range. And if you believe in the trend, then it seems the KLCI is due for correction but looking at the volumes, the Composite Index needs to go higher before it can comes down for a rest.

Dow Jones plunged over 246 points last Friday but heck, who cares, most of you might ask. Malaysia does not need the pointers from U.S., what more with the writing on the wall that Ben Bernanke is almost definitely will cut the interest rate again. So logically foreign funds could be scrambling (or already rushed in?) to park their money elsewhere such as Asia in general and Malaysia in particular. At least that’s what the PM, Abdullah Badawi believed when he was asked if the current sudden bull was due to pre-election rally.

Badawi believed the foreign funds are begging to have their money into local stocks because he succeeded in promoting the country as an investment haven. Remember what happened when he opened his big mouth in early 2007 and subsequently the stock market plunged more than 100 points in only days? And he did it again in 2008. Let’s hope his mouth is not cursed this time around. It probably won’t simply because the general election is here for real – at least the perception is such. This time it won’t take long to test the rumor that the election would probably be held three to four weeks after the Chinese New Year festival (falls on Feb 7th) and during the school holiday (Mar 7th to 16th). So March 2008 is the month to watch out.

And to take advantage of the current rally, stocks investors should start strategizing what to do at the current scenario. Most of the technical indicators such as RSI, Stochastic and MACD points to overbought level and consolidation is about to happen. Nevertheless with slightly more than two months to go before the peak of the election comes into play, any correction (if there’s any) should be short-lived. Therefore if your stocks are in the profitable territory, there’s no harm to lock in the profit. If your stocks just started to move such as Mah Sing Group Berhad (KLSE: MAHSING, stock-code 8583) and E&O Property Development Berhad (KLSE: E&OPROP, stock-code 3468), you might wish to hold on since the cyclic for property stocks could starts after the plantation stocks are peaking.

In fact if your previous fundamental stocks that went through the distribution phase have bottom down, there’s no law to prevent you from accumulating in stages. How risky could it be if these fundamental stocks didn’t move when since the KLCI jumped more than 100 points? Let’s face the reality. The government couldn’t jack-up the stocks market up by 20 points on daily basis. They can’t afford to have the stocks plunge by 100 points back to below 1,400 either. Hence most probably the KLCI would find a temporarily resting place somewhere above 1,450 at the worst case scenario – unless of course U.S. suddenly attack Iran.

In short, it’s time to liquidate your portfolio to have a healthy balance of cash against stocks on hand. Only with sufficient cash you could bargain hunt should there be some innocent sheeps wandering around. Bull and Bear makes money, Pig gets slaughtered! So readers, what’s your strategy now that the KLCI is above 1,500? Do you have an exit plan?

Other Articles That May Interest You … 

• Have the Chinese New Year and Election Rally started?
• 2008 Election Polls – USA and Malaysia
• What to do during US Economy Slowdown?
• Six more months of good time before Election?

Friday, January 11, 2008

Earnings season started, Ben to be nicer this time?

December data (payroll, unemployment, ISM) were clearly disappointing as job deterioration raises the risk to consumer spending – a sign that many thinks will force Uncle Ben to act again when the Fed meet next Jan 29th – 30th. And on Thursday the Federal Reserve Chairman pledged to slash interest rates as needed to prevent housing and credit problems from plunging the country into a recession.

Economists now believe the Fed will slice its key interest rate by a bold one-half of a percentage point instead of one-quarter point reduction. Remember when the Fed (Dec 11th 2007) cut the rate by 25 instead of 50 basis point to 4.25 percent as demanded by many and as the consequences the Dow plunged by 344 points? And now the same expectation is building? Bernanke who invited wide criticisms on his approach in tackling the economy issue might succumb to pressure this time around, he’s a nice guy after all compare to his predecessor Alan Greenspan.

Anyway, the earning season started with stock picking becomes more difficult with the gloomy U.S. economy and the hanging post-subprime problem especially with financial institutions still bleeding profusely. The market’s pulse does not show a healthy status and any great earning reports from stocks not related to financial could join the blood-pool if the overall market sentiment for that particular day (heck, or even a trading session) is not good. Next week we’ll see how the sub-prime crisis affect Citigroup Inc.’s (NYSE: C, stock) bottom line. Also we’ll have Intel Corp (Nasdaq: INTC, stock) reporting its earnings on the same day as Citigroup on Tuesday, Jan 15th. Both reports could set the direction for the financial and technology stocks, temporarily.

And don’t forget the much anticipated MacWorld Conference and Exposcheduled on 14th – 18th Jan 2008, that’s next week dude. For all you know, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) could be the saviour of the day.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Red all over Wall Street due to Unemployment Data
• What to do during US Economy Slowdown?
• Stocks Threw the Punches – Cut or No Cut

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Move aside iPod Nano, here come Tata Nano

What does Steve Jobs have in common with Ratan N. Tata? Both have the vision to build the smallest version of their products, well, sort of. While Steve is known for introducing iPod and instantly uplifts the Apple Inc. brand to almost every corner of the globe, Mr. Tata owns India’s largest automobile company with reported revenues of US$7.2 billion in 2006. You might not know it but chances are the heavy trucks and buses plying the road carry the Tata brand.

To bring their products to another level, Steve has introduced the infamous iPod Nano and today Mr. Ratan introduced the Tata Nano at the 9th Auto Expo in New Delhi. Not sure if the chairman of the Tata Group actually owns iPod Nano and gotten the inspiration from there but the two-cylinder 623-cc capable of generating 33bhp care is surely the “People’s Car”. The cheapest car in the world which is selling for only $2,500 is bundled with 4-speed manual gearshift, air-conditioning, front disk and rear drum brakes, four doors, multi point fuel injection petrol engine, basic suspension and seat belts.

The 3.1 metres in length, width of 1.5 metres and height of 1.6 metres car however does not have power steering or fancy dashboard (only speedometer, oil light and fuel gauge). The Tata Nano claims to clock mileage of 23km per liter and with a 30-liter fuel tank, you might need to find a petrol station only after 690km of drive.Tata claims that the car meets safety and environmental standards despite numerous skeptical criticisms.

Tata Nano is expected to be available on the road in the second half of 2008 and the company hopes to sell 500,000 units. Just wondering if Malaysia should consider importing the car to provide alternative to lower-income group since it’s so economical.and cheap.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Can Proton just make up its mind on the partnership?
• New PROTON Model with Old Design Launched
• Why Proton Needs Rebranding as Europestar for China?

Spectacular last 90 minutes cheers to Tech-Stocks

Lately Wall Street has been trading on a trend whereby the morning session’s pattern could be different from the afternoon. It appears the investors are trying to find reason(s) or rather excuse(s) creating volatility on both trading sessions of the day. I remember those days when you could roughly know the trading trend of the day sometimes into the opening bell till the closing session. And you could pretty much know when to scalp for a small profit and run. However nowadays it is as if there are two different trading days altogether squeezed into one day.

Wednesday trading was a good example whereby the Dow was down 90 points but staged a rebound in the final one and a half hour towards closing bell to register a gain of 146 points. Most investors are waiting for hints about the U.S. central bank’s stance on the economy from the scheduled Thursday speech by Ben Bernanke. You should see how Google Inc. spectacularly climbed over twenty bucks a share within the last 90 minutes. The day’s trading range for Google Inc.(Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) was between $622 and $653 a share. 

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) stock was the most impressive, at least that’s how I feel, when it skyrocketed to close at $179.40, just inches away from the $180 support level (the stock was traded at $180.77 during after hours). It was having a good trading range of $168 and $179 throughout the day. Next week’s MacWorld in San Francisco, the event which could potentially swing the trading trend of technology stocks, will be the day every Apple Inc. investors is looking for. Steve Jobs who is infamous for rolling out innovative products at the event is expected to announce a computer half as thick as Apple's current MacBook but using flash memory chips (instead of hard drive) such as those found in the iPod.

Meanwhile Baidu.com, Inc.’s (Nasdaq: BIDU, stock) which plunged about $20 a share in the morning session performed the same rebound but not enough to lift it into the green territory. However the stock was traded higher above the $350 level at $351.50 or 2.15% during after hours trading. The year 2007 was the year of Google Inc. when the stock breached the $700 and was just inches away from the $800 mark. Baidu.com did even better by more than doubled its stock pricesince the beginning of Jan 2007. The rally was set to continue if not for the unfortunate loss of its CFO and since then the stock price of Baidu.com appears to be eyeing the $300 mark for new direction.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Take Money off the table on Baidu, watchout for Apple
• Baidu mourning while Google and Apple near support

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Have the Chinese New Year and Election Rally started?

Once every for or five years, Malaysian stock market would stage a rally in anticipation of the general election. The rally could be a mini one or a huge one just like what’s happening now. The daily transaction volume was on plunging mode towards the end of last year, 2007, but suddenly the daily volume sprang to life with the year of rat (2008). The KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) is currently inches away from the 1,500 – a level that would put 1993 Super Bull Run to shame.

Traditionally every New Year would start with a bang and if the Chinese New Year is about one or two months away, chances are the pre-Chinese New Year rallycould be smiling at stocks investors (though there were minor exceptions). This year could spells double bonus as the pre-Election rally may add more sweet mandarin oranges to you, never mind the Prime Minister still has yet to get his inspiration. Another mini bonus is the rally in crude palm oil (CPO) prices.

In fact it’s not that difficult to push up the KLCI considering the government could “invoke” 15.9% of the Composite Index movement by snapping TMT (TENAGA, MAYBANK and TELEKOM) stocks. Malayan Banking Berhad (KLSE:MAYBANK, stock-code 1155), Tenaga Nasional Berhad (KLSE: TENAGA, stock-code 5347) and Telekom Malaysia Berhad (KLSE: TM, stock-code 4863) each influences 5.8 percent, 5.3 percent and 4.8 percent respectively of the overall KLCI.

Now you have Sime Darby Berhad (SIME: stock-code 4197) and IOI Corp Berhad (KLSE: IOI, stock-code 1961) as the new plantation heroes with a combine 12.9 percent weighting to KLCI – the task could not be easier. To add cheers to the crowd, Public Bank Berhad (KLSE: PBBANK, stock-code 1295) and Genting Berhad (KLSE: GENTING, stock-code 3182) could add spices to the celebration. So you shouldn’t be surprise when the talks of KLCI reaching even above 1,600 within 2008. But the above heavyweights are not everyone’s cup of tea.

Most season investors are looking for this signature (already started?) before start pinching the politically-linked stocks such as MRCB (KLSE: MRCB, stock-code 1651), Time DotCom Berhad (TIMECOM: stock-code 5031), UEM World Berhad (KLSE: UEMWRLD, stock-code 1775) and others. With the current KLCI defying Wall Street’s movement, any one-eye remisiers, dealers or analysts will have a common agreement – the Chinese New Year rally just started. The Election rally and the strong ringgit are the icing to the current rally. I’ve yet to see more than 80% of the stocks in the green contrary to what I’d seen during the 1993 Super Bull Run though.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Why you shouldn’t invest on Brokers’ Stocks for now
• Forget about TMT stocks, here come the Replacements

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Microsoft’s FAST bid will not improve its search position

It’s a known fact that to be successful you need to focus and once you achieved it you got to continue focusing in doing what you do best. Most of the successful company tried to diversify but somehow they never succeed, at least in a big way. That’s why despite owning mountains of cash Microsoft could not simply send Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) packing in the search engine section. Microsoft tried to unseat Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) iPod’s success with its Zune but met the same fate as MSN search engine.

Today it was reported that Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT, stock) has bid$1.2 billion for a Norwegian search engine company, Fast Search and Transfer ASA (OSL: FAST), which specializes in high-end Internet search and business intelligence systems. The bid price for the company which was founded in 1997 and currently employs about 500 people is $2.97 a share or about 42% premium over the Norwegian company's recent average share price. The stock has risen by nearly the same amount in early trading on the Oslo stock exchange.
Fast is a profitable company with revenue of $400 million. The acquisition will not in anyway help improve its existing position in consumer search market but would rather assist in the enterprise area. It was reported that Norway's Orkla ASA and Hermes Focus Asset Management Europe, two largest shareholders, have already accepted the offer.

Take Money off the table on Baidu, watchout for Apple

Did you notice the volatility displayed by the technology stocks on Nasdaq today? This is what a trader would love to see. A huge plunge follows by a reverse trend to the green, just like how the Dow and Nasdaq composite swung. StockTube had blogged that Baidu.com, Inc.’s (Nasdaq:BIDU, stock) support was at $350 which was breached during today’s trading, 7th Jan 2008. If only you had monitored how the stock was sold off within 10:15 to 10:35 trading hour today – all the red spikes could easily test your emotion.

At the time of writing, I’m not sure if $350 would be the new resistance or remains as the support for Baidu.com but I decided not to wait to find out. Instead I had closed the position and take the money off the table gauging from the volatility of the Dow and Nasdaq. It was a mere 15 percent profit for my BIDU Feb 2008 370 Put Option – how I wish I could sell when the stock was at $338 but then you just can’t, can you? Baidu.com is trying to climb back to above $350 but it depends very much on the overall market sentiment.

Interestingly Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) also experienced the same force of selling during the same trading hour as Baidu.com, Inc. Hence Apple Inc. has becomes even more attractive with the current share price, only to prove you can never buy at the lowest. Just like Baidu.com, Apple Inc. is trying to climb back to above $180. You just need to buy in stages (assuming you would like to long the stock) at the current market’s volatility. If you do not take position, you might not get the current attractive price if the stock decides to swing or gap-up the next trading day. Similiarly if you decide to enter now, you might just be able to scoop it at a lower price tomorrow.

Hence it’s really a hard decision but I believe if you think the stock is trading at“your target” price, it’s time to buy in stages. Meanwhile Google Inc. (Nasdaq:GOOG, stock) staged a magnificent rebound from the lowest of $640 to $655 as of writing time – talk about volatility.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Baidu mourning while Google and Apple near support

Monday, January 07, 2008

MAS offers low fares but Tiger Airways is giving Free

As their competitor you got to hate them but as their customer you simply got to love them, although you might have thousand and one reason to criticize them because you were comparing an apple and an orange. Before the creation of this creature called AirAsia Berhad (KLSE: AIRASIA, stock-code 5099), not many people can afford to fly domestically, let alone to another country. Of course if you’ve been the frequent flyer of Malaysian Airline System Berhad (KLSE: MAS, stock-code 3786) then nobody can blames you for screaming at the top of your voice that “AirAsia service sucks!”

Like it or not AirAsia is the most successful low-cost airline in this region and they are about to dominate this for some time. They’ve also set the standard as far as competitiveness is concerned. When you thought they’re already too cheap to do anything innovative to capture new customer base, they threw in the infamous popular marketing plan – Free Seats. Despite decades in business when was the last time you heard of MAS giving away free seats – even during their anniversaries celebration sake? Yet here you can not only fly around cheaply (no free meals provided of course) but also able to enjoy free seats periodically.

Since the emergence of AirAsia, MAS was caught unprepared but realized that in order to survive they somehow had to change. Today MAS is offering low faresfor bookings now until January 23 via its call centre, ticket offices and online – if you plan to travel from Jan 14th - Mar 31st on domestic routes and from Jan 9th - Mar 15th for regional sectors. The fares would start from as low as RM39 for Malaysian domestic travel, RM79 for Asean destinations, RM199 to China and RM399 to the Indian sub-continent.

Meantime Tiger Airways, the Singapore’s version of low fare airlines, is offering over 15,000 free seatsto customers to mark its sales launch today for its latest route, Singapore-Kuala Lumpur. The airline, which will operate daily flights from Feb 1st, said the free seats are available for booking online at theirwebsite from now until Friday, and are for travel until Oct 25th.

Tiger Airways which was awarded the rights to operate a daily service on the Singapore-Kuala Lumpur route last month will operate from the Low Cost Carrier Terminal at the KLIA (Kuala Lumpur International Airport). The 55-min Singapore-Kuala Lumpur daily flight will depart Changi Airport for KLIA LCCT at 10.50am and return from KLIA LCCT at 12.15pm from Feb 1 to March 29. Now everyone is wondering if MAS would be generous enough to offer free seats in the not too distance future- I’m sure you won't mind if MAS was to take off the menu from the 55-min journey, would you?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Monopoly No More, AirAsia to fly to Singapore
• Tony Fernandes - The Truly Air Asia Hero (Part 1)
• Tony Fernandes - The Truly Air Asia Hero (Part 2)

Sunday, January 06, 2008

Tale of a Producer that runs out of Stock

Just what could be the problem with Malaysia’s fifth Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi’s administration? He got the highest votes from the public during his first election since taken over from former premier Mahathir but it appears he’s screwing it up pretty fast. Hold on! It was not only the votes that Badawi gotten the highest score. Let’s be fair and analyze both his achievements (if you can call it) and his failures.

He ended the ringgit's peg to the U.S. currency which was implemented by his predecessor. The ringgit is now proudly at the highest traded at about 3.28 to a dollar, never mind that public might not enjoy benefit(s) out of it. Then during his regime the oil prices hit the $100 a barrel on third day of New Year but of course we can’t blame him for something that he can’t control, can we? Instead he was kind enough not to raise the fuel hike when all of you were happily celebrating the 2008 New Year as the PM only promised not to do so till 11:59pm on 31st Dec 2007. Rumor has it that the next fuel hike could be as low as 40 cents per liter although nobody can blame him if he decided to raise it to 90 cents a liter or evenRM1.20 a liter.

The country also achieved another milestone when the biggest scandal was revealed but as with the normal SOP it was business as usual. And then you have perhaps the highest number of peaceful demonstrationswithin 1 month, not to mention thebiggest rallies since 1998. And when you thought how bad the New Year 2008 could be, you were entertained with the sex scandal on the first day of the year when the PM’s comrade somehow couldn’t keep his cuckoo to where it belongs. Yeah, he was setup and he was actually in a rehearsal for a programme to teach youngsters the concept of practicing safe-sex – big deal.

The greatest achievement of all could probably be that the local stock market is at its highest, much to the envy of Mahathir. The country also saw the creation of the the biggest listed palm oil producer in the world in terms of output. Surprisingly the country is facing shortage of cooking oil based on the same commodity that the country was proud of in the first place. It’s like sayingSwitzerland is facing shortage of Rolex watches, Japan is facing shortage of Toyota cars and Saudi Arabia is facing the shortage of fuel. Interestingly this is not the first time the nation is facing shortage of such basic fundamental needs.

The solution by Malaysian government – rationing which limit customers to two 5kg bottles of palm oil based cooking oil each. As usual the respective ministry and even the deputy PM put the blames on middle man, consumers who panic easily and thus contribute to the shortage, smuggling and all sorts of excuses that could only insult your intelligence. Heck, if only the country is so vulnerable that a simple trick of creating a shortage would pull the nation to her knees, could you imagine the reaction of current administration if the same old George Soros was to attack the currency again as in 1997 Crisis?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Chua Soi Lek’s Sex DVDs, Cuckoo ends his Career
• Oil prices at $100 a barrel on third day of New Year 2008
• Fuel Price Hike of 90 cents to RM2.82 a liter next year?
• Why Can’t Public Enjoy the Benefits of Strong Ringgit?
• Oil price hike – Badawi’s greatest Economic Challenge
• Malaysia’s Biggest Scandal – Business as Usual

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Red all over Wall Street due to Unemployment Data

Weaker job growth and a rise in the unemployment rate enabled Wall Street to take the 3-digit plunge again Friday. The Dow fell 256.54(1.96 percent) to 12,800.18, below the psychological 13,000 points while the Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 35.53 (2.46 percent) to 1,411.63. Meanwhile The Nasdaq composite index dropped 3.77 percent or 98.03 points to 2,504.65, thanks to the downgrade of Intel Corp.

United States Labor Department reported that employers raised payrolls by only 18,000 and that the nation's unemployment rate rose to its highest level since November 2005. A weakening job market will hurt consumer spending and this got investors worried. Previously when the sub-prime crisis hit the stocks market, investors were using the growing employment to argue that as long as people were getting jobs consumption would continue to spur the economy. Employment was the last fort and now with the weakness report, investors are not too sure.

Baidu.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIDU, stock) plunged $14 to $361 a share while bothGoogle Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) and Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock)suffered the same fate. Google skidded $28 to $ 657 a share while Apple erased $14.88 to $180 a share. This is indeed good news to investors or traders who wish to have positions in Apple but would like to wait for consolidation to kicks in. So now you’re seeing with your own eyes the Apple stock which is at the current unbelievable attractive level.

While I do not know if the technology stocks will continue to take the beating, I do know it’s time to accumulate in stages. Remember that you can never buy at the lowest and sell at the highest. If you’re mouth-watering looking at Apple and Google’s prices, why not take some actions. On the side note, next Monday’s opening bell will not be a nice view to the other regional stocks markets including KLSE.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Baidu mourning while Google and Apple near support

Friday, January 04, 2008

The Composite Index, Plantation Stocks and the Wolf

Who would have thought that the traditional boring plantation stocks will be the sector that jump-starts the New Year 2008 with a bang? People would most likely put their bet on financial, property or even oil and gas companies to be the hero entering the new calendar. But the crude palm oil (CPO) prices appears to defy the gravity and continue to comfortably floating above 3,000 mark with the Mar 2008 contract touched a new high of RM3,159 per tonne – thanks to global high prices of palm oil and soya-oil.

Sime Darby Berhad (SIME: stock-code 4197), IOI Corporation Berhad (KLSE:IOICORP, stock-code 1961) and even Tradewinds Plantation Berhad (KLSE:TWSPLNT, stock-code 6327) are happily enjoying the “bountiful harvest” today. Most of the telecommunication companies such as Telekom Malaysia Berhad (KLSE: TM, stock-code 4863) and DIGI.com Berhad (KLSE: DIGI, stock-code 6947) joined in the bull-party, pushing the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index to more than 30 points higher at one point.

To the fans of Vincent Tan (and StockTube readers), today could be a decision making day. Readers who invested in the Berjaya Corporation Berhad (KLSE:BJCORP, stock-code 3395) Irredeemable Convertible Loan Stocks, ICULS (2005/2015) BJCORP-LC (stock-code 3395LC), had either been taking some profit or decided to wait (brave-heart and greedy) for Vincent Tan to give hint(s) of his actual “exit-plan”. However if you care to look at both BJCORP and BJCORP-LC stocks movement today, surprisingly the BJCORP-LC registered losses while the BJCORP was in green. In normal days since Vincent started heating the “wok”, both will goes hand-in-hand – green or red together. 

So, could the selling or major profit-taking started? I hope it was not due to myMission-Accomplished article that mentioned amongst other thing “it’s never a bad idea to take some money off the table” when your position has already reach the 100% profit target. But if you have not jump into the bandwagon yet, should you take it now? I hope I know the answer. Go and read the previous article and decide on your own because the stake is already high to scream “Buy!”

Maybe this could help you to decide. Vincent Tan continued to accumulate BJCORP right to the last month of 2007 via married-deal – a whopping 42,500,000 shares at RM1.25 a share. He is holding a direct 28.78% and indirect 28.45% with total shares amounted to 1,684,360,506 in BJCORP. You also have some recent acquisitions from UBS AG London and Goldman Sachs. If you know Vincent well, chances are he might not have devoured the whole bull yet – talk about the old wolf.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Mission Accomplished – 100% Profit with Vincent Tan?
• Oil Crisis - Palm Oil and Crude Oil at record high
• Forget about TMT stocks, here come the Replacements
• Would you like to make 100 percent Trading Stocks?

Baidu mourning while Google and Apple near support

While Baidu.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: BIDU, stock), the Chinese search engine that often said to be Chinese version of Google, lost their Chief Financial Officer, Shawn Wang, who died in an accident in China, its stock is still mourning. With the next support at $350 the stock could see further downtrend – another $20 to go down the drain based on current stock price of about $370 a share.

Meanwhile, both Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) and Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq:AAPL, stock) are toying around their support level of $680 and $196 level respectively. At the same time the Nasdaq Composite is trying very hard to stay in the positive territory – it has been zig-zagging in the red and green area throughout most of the morning trading session. So if you believe both prices are strong support level, you might want to “long” the stocks or its options.

I think Google Inc. at its $680 would be a steal while I hope to buy Apple Inc. at the next support - $192 (or lower *grin*) before the next earning announcement. The Dow is currently at 13,095.01, very near to its strong support of 13,000. Keep watching the stock chart for the above mentioned stocks.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Oil prices at $100 a barrel on third day of New Year 2008

Fuel prices touched the frightening level of $100 a barrel before eased Thursday. Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell 38 cents to $99.24 a barrel in Asian electronic trading but not before rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel Wednesday, only to slipped back below $100 to a record $99.62 – up $3.64. The $100 a barrel was done for one contract (1,000 barrels) only on the Nymex floor.

The continuous demand from two new giant, China and India, have keep the oil prices volatile and any crisis or instability related to oil would spark the acceleration of the black gold. As usual the violence in Nigeria resumes with the invasion of a band of armed men at Port Harcourt, the center of Nigeria's oil industry. Two police stations and lobby of a major hotel were reportedly raided.

The U.S. inventory report shows lower than expected stockpiles and the falling U.S. dollars worsen the situation. However U.S. said it would not release oil from the nation's strategic reserves to drive prices lower. The OPEC said its contributing members most likely will not be able to meet demand as early as 2024. Rumor that rough weather forced several Mexican oil ports to close add to the anxiety amongst investors.

Although many investors are confident the oil prices will breach the $100 a barrel eventually, they also believed the fuel prices will stay below $100 region for some time before going for the $100 kill. If 2006 was the year the oil prices were targeting $90 level, 2008 could be the year $100 becomes the new defacto level.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Oil Crisis - Palm Oil and Crude Oil at record high
• Oil prices establishing $90 as the new base
• Rate Cut’s effect – high Oil Prices and weaker Dollar
• Reasons why U.S. rate cut is a Bad Idea
• Reasons Why Oil Price might spikes to $90 and beyond

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Chua Soi Lek’s Sex DVDs, Cuckoo ends his Career

The first political casualty from the ruling government starts the second day of the New Year 2008 today when Malaysian Health Minister cum MCA vice president, Dr Chua Soi Lek, announced his resignation (or sacked by his own boss?) one day after he refused to do so. Chua Soi Lek’s sex DVDs scandal proves too hot to be handled by the Malaysian government, so much so that the 60-year old senior politician could not be saved even by the Prime Minister himself. MalaysiaKini and theStar reported the news.

Stock market opened for trading for the first day of the year 2008 but it appears the sex DVDs stole the limelight of the day. Investors are still in the holiday mood judging from the low volume after the closing bell. I bet even remisiers, dealers or brokers themselves were busy searching or finding where to download Chua Soi Lek’s sex DVDs. The year 2008 is perhaps the worst year in his political career. The MCA big gun might have thought of adopting the infamous former President Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky’s strategy in denying the scandal but the difference is Chua was caught with his pants totally down with the sex DVDs while Clinton-Lewinsky was not.
Interestingly the only scandal that could bring down a Malaysian politician is sex scandal – only if you’re caught pants down. Not even corruptions, regardless of billions of dollars involved, could match the catastrophic that a sex scandal could bring to a Malaysian politician. However compare to former Deputy Speaker of Dewan Rakyat (House of Representatives) cum secretary-general of MIC (Malaysian Indian Congress), D.P. Vijandran, who became the actor cum camera-man over a number of pornographic tapes (DVD did not exists back then), Chua Soi Lek’s sex DVDs are peanuts.

There were numerous other sex scandals involving politicians. The hottest rumor was a very top leader who was caught with an actress in Port Dickson but his power saved the day, not to mention there were no CCTVs that manage to record the hot-scenes. Chua Soi Lek and his supporters were crying that they were setup by some sort of political parties but when your cuckoo was captured running wild with other women except your own wife, you’re dead meat. That’s the reality in politics. As much as the PM would like to save Chua’s butt, the stake is too high to take considering the general election is around the corner.

Furthermore how hard could it be for the oppositions to run down on the current government’s morality if Chua was to let off the hook? Yes, Chua did themagnificent sex DVDs that spread over two volumes and most of you is willing to pay high price to get hold of it and may be yelling “Where to find Chua Soi Lek sex DVD?” since yesterday. But is Chua’s guiltiness any lesser by comparison to those multi-billion corruptions or racism policies that seems to be the standard operating procedure of the nation, not to mention a former Malacca Chief Minister who was involved in a sex scandal with an under-aged girl?

Maybe it’s time the politicians learn the 101 Dos-and-Don’ts of “don’t eat and shit at the same place” – obviously Chua didn’t know about it. But then the post is indeed CURSED!!!

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• What a day to start the New Year – Sex DVDs anyone?

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

What a day to start the New Year – Sex DVDs anyone?

What a day to start the first day of the New Year 2008. And if you’re living in the land of a nation called Malaysia, you should be proud of the great abundant of stories that never fail to amuse you. While everyone was celebrating the New Year with great fireworks, you have groups of Mat Rempit (illegal racers) pulling all kinds of stunts who might endangered other users. It’s amazing how this group of people still exists till today, thanks to the son-in-law of the Malaysian Prime Minister who endorsed and even called them Mat Cemerlang (bright and excellent racers?) not many moons ago.

Then you have the Works Minister Samy Vellu who said his resolution for the New Year is to uplift the standard of living in the Indian community, something he had never said before in his entire 30-year (if my old memory serves me right) as the leader who represent the Indian community in Malaysia. Equally surprising was the news that Selangor Chief Minister, Khir Toyo, was ready to have adialogue session with Hindu temple representatives, something that you should not dream of if not for the controversy caused by the Hindraf. With so many news coverage and leniency shown by the government, would that portray Hindraf as the new Indian communities’ hero? After all without Hindraf the government would care nuts about them.

Not to lose out, you have the MCA (Malaysia Chinese Association, a component party of ruling government) president Ong Ka Ting who trumpeted and sing the song of praises to his own boss about the allocation of RM6.02 million for 32 Chinese schools. That’s a mere $188,000 for each school, mind you. Isn’t it the responsibility of the government to provide the basic education facilities to the citizen in the first place? So why the marketing talk?

But the most amazing story on the first day of the New Year is the “Sex DVDs” of a high-ranking politician in Johor who is related to MCA, the component party of the ruling government. The first and second DVD each lasted 56 minutes and 44 minutes respectively are believed to be closed-circuit television (CCTV) recordings in a hotel suite. Both DVDs showing a man resembling a prominent senior politician and a woman engaging in various sexual antics was first reported in the Chinese dailies on Sunday.

Now here’s the fun part. Instead of investigating the DVDs’ actor and actress, Malaysian Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Musa Hassan, hinted the police might start grilling the reporter who broke the story. Police also warned that anyone found in possession of the DVDs or caught distributing copies of them could be charged under Section 292 of the Penal Code and sentenced to three years' jail or fined, or both. Is this another classic case of punishing the whistle-blower instead of the culprit? 

And who’s this politician? It’s none other than the Health Minister Dr Chua Soi Lek, the Vice President of MCA, whoadmitted in the breaking news reported byMalaysiaKini and theStar, not that he can activate the denial syndrome again. In a press conference, Dr Chua said the girl is his “personal friend” and he apologised to the Malaysian public, supporters and his colleagues. But he said he will “not resign” over the sex DVD, not a surprise since nobody from the ruling government has ever resign voluntarily over scandals before. Perhaps his comrades could charge out and justify that being a minister, Chua is still a human being and needs sex just like ordinary person. Or maybe he's just trying to promote safe-sex to the youngsters. Hmmm, that probably could do the trick.

The portfolio of Health Minister is traditionally reserved for MCA probably due to the rumors that the seat is cursed. Except for Chong Hon Nyan, past ministers didn’t have “good ending” in their political career. And with the current Sex-DVDs, it would take lots of encouragement (or thick skin?) to pretend as if the DVDs didn’t exist for Chua Soi Lek. Nevertheless ignoring the public embarrassment is one thing, facing his family members is another different thing. I'm not sure if there're brave souls out there who dare to sell the DVDs since the issue is already sizzling hot but I'm pretty sure people will start googling to download the sex DVDs. Maybe it will make its way to YouTube sooner or later *evil grin*.

The next upcoming hot topic would be the fuel hike. Already rumors were spreading that the government is ready to increase petrol by 40 sen to RM2.32 a liter from current RM1.92 a liter. But I guess there’re enough amazing stories on the first day of the New Year itself.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Video: Member of Parliament assaulted and humiliated
• Rally, Racial and the Race towards the Election
• Bail-Out with a piece of paper worth RM700 million
• Two Major Rallies within 1 month – great score for PM
• Malaysia’s Biggest Rallies since 1998 – KL under siege
• Fuel Price Hike of 90 cents to RM2.82 a liter next year?
• Malaysia Judiciary Scandal? Don’t bet on it
• Malaysia’s Biggest Scandal – Business as Usual
• No fees but shareholders fuming Ling Chicken Out
• Poor’s Hope in MAIKA – the Last Robbery

Monday, December 31, 2007

Mission Accomplished – 100% Profit with Vincent Tan?

StockTube first blogged about Vincent Tan’s stocks in Oct 2006 when Berjaya Capital Berhad was still a listed company. Then Berjaya Corporation Berhad (KLSE: BJCORP, stock-code 3395), formerly known as Berjaya Group Berhad together with its Irredeemable Convertible Loan Stocks, ICULS (2005/2015) BJCORP-LC (stock-code 3395LC) triggered StockTube and MACD "Buy" signal.

It wasn’t about a year later that Berjaya Corp finally made its move in Oct 2007. The attraction was not the Berjaya Corp shares but its ICULS which was traded about $0.20 a share most of 2007. It was traded below $0.08 a share before 2007 mind you. Why is this fella difference from other warrants? It’s because itsexpiration is at mind-boggling 2015 - huge time-value at your advantage. Essentially nobody would believe Vincent Tan will keep quiet and do nothing to push up his own shares.
In Oct 2007 StockTube blogged about the stock (Berjaya Corp) again; only this time the worm was out of the can, well sort of, with both Berjaya Corp and Silver Bird (KLSE: SILVER, stock-code 7136) caught the attention of investors and speculators. The undisputed king of “bonus and rights issue” had awakened.The game became so excited that StockTube wrote and asked you if you would like to make 100 percent profit trading stocks. At that particular moment Bejaya Corp was trading at RM1.09 while the ICULS was at RM0.55 a share. I would say the period was the climax for investors or speculators to accumulate.

Today with a few hours left before the 2008 New Year, Berjaya Corp ICULS stock (traded at highest RM1.00 a share today) has almost reach the target of 100 percent profit should you had bought into it on 12th Oct 2007. With the mother share of Berjaya Corp trading at only RM1.55 a share and assuming Vincent Tan needs to make 100 percent profit himself since his acquisitions via conversion of ICULS was at the price ranging from RM0.908 to RM1.00 per BJCORP shares in Oct 2007, it appears Berjaya Corp still has 50% upside. Hence it would not be too hard to imagine that the ICULS could have another RM0.50 a share gain, theoretically.

Not only that but it seems Vincent’s StemLife Berhad (KLSE: STEMLFE, stock-code 0137) has made very impressive window dressing for the last five trading days before the 2007 curtain comes to the end. So is it game over? Considering theChinese Lunar Year is still a month away, the goodies could continue post-2008-New Year. But it’s never a bad idea to take some money off the table. Can you imagine the percentage of gains if you hold on to the ICULS from the previous restructuring exercise?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Would you like to make 100 percent Trading Stocks?
• Stocks Frying 101 with the Iron Chef Vincent Tan
• Silver Bird might be yelling Give-Me-5, High-5
• Will Vincent Tan Finally Moves His Stocks?

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Malaysian Astronaut Project Poll Result

Not many hours left before we welcome yet another new year and bid farewell to the year 2007. The holiday mood should have started since the middle of Dec 2007 when most of you are clearing your annual leaves and probably will see your colleagues again in 2008. Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange is set to do some last minute window-dressing on Monday, being the last trading day in the calendar 2007. StockTube would like to publish the result from the poll “What do you think of Malaysia Astronaut project?” before the curtain comes down.

I bet you, being tipical Malaysian, would have forgotten the above issue as in synonym with what the former premier Mahathir said – Malaysian has short memory. Anyhow, here’s a summary to refresh your memory. On 10th Oct 2007, Malaysia became the first country in Asean (can you take that Singapore?) to send an “Angkasawan” to space on board the Russian Soyuz TMA-11 spacecraft. What caused the controversy was how the plan was bundled within a billion-dollar deal for Malaysia to buy 18 Russian-made Sukhoi 30-MKM jet fighters.

There’re people who applauded the mission as well as people who criticized it. For those who still think there’s actually free lunch attached with the billion-dollar arm deal, you must have been staying under the coconut shell for God knows how long. The fact that USD30 million can be used to build lots of school, send many capable students to further their studies, help tons of families affected by the recent flood or even to help very poor families who couldn’t send any of their kids to primary school simply shows how the government chose to “brag” about the trip being the first step by Malaysia to prove its capability in the field of aerospace.

Anyway, let’s take a look at how the readers of StockTube have voted. Here’s the result:

• 36.7% of readers voted “It’s a waste of $30 million”
• 32.4% of readers voted “It’s a cover-up of over-paid $1 billion jet-fighters deal”
• 21.5% of readers voted the astronaut was “Just a Space Tourist, not Astronaut”
• 5.9% of readers voted “The selection process was not fair”
• 1.9% of readers voted “Others”
• 1.6% of readers voted they’re proud of the project

There’re 5 votes who voted for “Others”, so let’s see what were their opinions, shall we?

• one reader said fortunately the government didn’t proceed with the shameful idea of sending roti canai or teh tarik to the space.
• one reader mentioned the project was truly a leader’s visionary quality
• one reader said it was a load of bull cooked up by BN (ruling government) to project a false sense of Malay Supremacy.
• another reader still couldn’t figure out how Malaysia is gonna benefit from the project
• one reader thought it was “idiotic”

So there you are; the result of the previous poll and the other feedback from the readers. But if you think the project has ended you better think again. The government has committed to send the second angkasawan to the space by end of 2010 as it would be cruel to leave the other guy high and dry after all the training. That’s not all. Miraculously Malaysia’s Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Jamaluddin Jarjis said in early Nov 2007 that it was “a freaking good idea” to buy the whole Russian Soyuz TMA-11 Space Rocket. Assuming the sending of the second angakasawan will costs another $30 million and the space rocket costs $100 million, you’re looking at $130 million being taken out from the nation’s coffer – that’s your money dude.

And be prepared to see the space rocket being painted “Made in Malaysia” in due course should the decision to purchase it approved. Meanwhile I’ve started another poll concerning hikes. Every Tom, Dick and Dog knows hike(s) is imminent under current Abdullah Badawi’s administration. If not for the general election of which he needs to push the feel-good factors out to public, the government would have announced multiple hikes by now. So in 2008 what hikes do you think is the most disastrous, at least to you? You can choose “Others” and enter your opinion. So, vote and have fun – it’s on the right side of this blog. Happy New Year to all StockTube's readers!!!

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Malaysian first Astronaut? Not sure, but will he urinate
• Malaysia 2008 Budget’s Poll Result

Saturday, December 29, 2007

How to TT, Wire or Fund your US Trading Account?

Globalization seems to be the magic bullet which is slowly but surely taking its effect on everyone including the world of stocks investing. When I first started StockTube about slightly more than a year ago, I wasn’t too sure if I should write about the hidden opportunity in investing not only stocks but also option from the world’s largest equity markets – the United States. Since then I’ve received great response (surprisingly most of the readers decided to send me private email instead of using the comment section) particularly the mechanism of option trading.

One thing leads to another and due to overwhelming requests (I was bombarded with emails for related articles for quite some time) I’ve written the article on which broker to choose and how to open a trading account. Surprisingly I continue to receive emails from readers (who can blame them *grin*) asking me how to fund their accounts. Hey! I thought funding the account should be a straight-forward process that the local banking institutions have no problem executing. Isn’t it strange that Malaysian local banks such as Maybank and Public Bank do not know how to do simple TT (Telegraphic Transfer) to USA? But then maybe it only affects certain branch(s) of which their officers have not done such a high-tech procedure before *evil grin*.

As such, I’m publishing this short article on steps to fill in the “Application for overseas remittances” form or most of you would refer it as “TT form”(applicable to Malaysian investors only). The example below is based on Malayan Banking Berhad’s (KLSE: MAYBANK, stock-code 1155) form. Take note that this form might have changed. Other financial institutions that offer such facility should have different form but the basic fundamental of the contents should be almost the same. Here’s the extract of the form (I’ve ignored the rest of the no-brainer particulars within the actual form).

The steps listed below correspond to the numbers within the image above:

Particulars of Applicant:

• [Step-1] - Your Name: you shouldn’t have problem with this else I do not know what to say.
• [Step-2] - IC / Passport No: your identification number or passport number for non-citizen
• [Step-3] – Address: your residential or mailing address
• [Step-4] - Telephone No: your contact number which is reachable

Particulars of Beneficiary (the most important):

• [Step-5] – Name: the Bank Account Name of the broker that you’re applying, i.e. Interactive Brokers LLC. You should be able to get this information when you sign-up with your preferred broker.
• [Step-6] – Address (if any): this is the address of the broker’s banking, i.e. Citibank, N.A. (New York Branch), 111 Wall Street, New York, NY 10043, United States of America. Again this info should be supplied to you by your preferred broker when you sign-up.
• [Step-7] – Account No: this broker’s bank account number should be available during your preferred broker’s sign-up
• [Step-8] – Other Details (if any): you should enter the information provided by your broker with reference (benefit to) to you.

Particulars of Bank Beneficiary (important):

• [Step-9] – Name: the name of the broker’s bank, i.e. Citibank, New York
• [Step-10] – Place of payment / Address (if any): this should be the “Bank Codes” provided by your broker, i.e. ABA Number and the SWIFT BIC Code.
• [Step-11] – Town, City: the city of your broker’s bank location, i.e. New York
• [Step-12] – Country: you should enter United States of America.

Amout to be remitted to beneficiary:

• [Step-13] – Currency: USD
• [Step-14] – Amount: 3,000,000.00 (if you wish to fund such amount *grin*)

That’s almost all you need to fill with the remaining to be taken care by the bank’s officer. If your local bank officer still scratching his/her head while giving you a clueless look, it’s time to kick his/her butt. Let me know if this article is useful to you, will ya?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Which Brokerage and How to open a trading account?

Friday, December 28, 2007

Bhutto’s assassination a minor hiccup for Consolidation

Dow Jones plunged over 190 points after the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto together with Commerce Department's durable goods orders raised concerns about the U.S. economy. Bhutto's assassination in Rawalpindi raised the possibility of increasing political unrest in Pakistan, a nation which is an ally of U.S. in the fight against terrorism. What makes the situation worse is the fact that Pakistan possesses an arsenal of nuclear weapons and if the post-assassination situations spin out of control, it could spells catastrophic.

Thursday's drop was further exaggerated by the fact that many traders were on vacation, making volume light and stock prices more volatile. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS, stock) said Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C, stock) may be forced to write off 70 percent more than the $8 billion to $11 billion Citi forecast in early November. Citi could also cut its dividend, and might need to raise $5 billion to $10 billion more cash.

For Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) fans, it was a short cheers when the stock price charged above $200 a share and hit as high as $202.96 before selling emerged and forced the stock to consolidate below $200 at $198.57. As I mentioned when I locked my profit during my Silly Mistakes, Making Money and Christmas Eve’s Joy, Apple would be testing the $200 level but not before the stock price consolidate to build the foundation at $196.

Benazir Bhutto’s assassination could well present the excuse for investors to sell and stocks to consolidate before the next rally (for certain stocks). Someone mentioned about two major occasions for Apple Inc. in Jan 2008 – MacWorld and Earnings. Do some research and you should be able to scoop some pocket money.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Silly Mistakes, Making Money and Christmas Eve’s Joy
• Operation Normandy II – Apple’s 3G-iPhone Invasion
• Google and Apple stocks, my money making machine

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Shorter stocks trading hours will create higher Volatility

This seems to be a good idea – the suggestion to shorten the Malaysia Stock Exchange’s trading hours from the current 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. to 10 a.m. – 4 p.m. It was suggested by Malaysian Investors’ Association (MIA) today. Frankly I’ve no objection to such a proposal simply because I do not see the co-relation between longer trading hours with the transaction volume.

I agreed that if a busier stock market such as Hong Kong Stock Exchange could coup with their daily transaction within market period of 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., a smaller market such as Malaysia’s shouldn’t have much issue about doing so. Wall Street’s trading hour is from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. EST. although New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) had mooted the idea of extending its trading hours in the past.

However I’m not quite sure that shorter trading hours would make any difference to how the local stock market will react given the additional one hour for brokers, analysts and researchers to digest overnight US financial information. Under normal circumstances thelocal stocks will react relatively to Dow Jones’ overnight performance, and it will remains regardless of the trading hours. So a 300-points plunge in Wall Street will send the local stocks into the red regardless of the trading hours.

Will it affect the daily volume? Not really since serious investors or traders would adapt to the new trading hours and their buying or selling would eventually find its way. In fact with more and more investors or traders trading online, you could experience a higher volatility or stocks movement per hour with such shorter trading hours. Will it create healthier investors? Definitely considering the lesser time in tracking the stock market, not to mention ample time for them to enjoy their breakfast before starting their job *grin*. What do you think?

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Early Online Holiday Sales up 19% from previous year

Early study done by comScore, Inc. (Nasdaq: SCOR, stock), a leader in measuring the digital world, showed U.S. online retail sales hit a record$26.29 billion from Nov. 1 through Dec. 21, up 19% from the year-ago($22.04 billion in 2006). Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT, stock) warned late Monday that its same-store sales might decline for December, while a broad gauge of consumer spending released by Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA, stock), which includes estimates for spending by check and cash, reported on Tuesday an increase of 3.6 percent from Thanksgiving to Christmas, compared with a 6.6 percent gain in the year-ago period.

Thanks to free shipping, product discounts and retailers that opened earlier than normal hour the online spending could be higher pre and post Christmas. Toys "R" Us Inc. which opened its door two hours earlier at 8 a.m. on Wed is offering 40 percent price cuts on all MP3 and iPod accessories. Macy's Inc.(NYSE: M, stock) is offering 50 percent to 75 percent off cashmere sweaters, while Saks Fifth Ave. cut prices on fur coats by 40 percent to 60 percent. Electronics retailer Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY, stock) provided free shipping for all its online digital cameras sales.

Amazon.com Inc (Nasdaq: AMZN,stock) said five of the top 10 itemson its electronics best-seller list are Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock)iPod players. Meanwhile Buy.com reports strong sales of Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT, stock) Zune and SanDisk Corp.’s (Nasdaq: SNDK, stock) Sansa players. It’s great to see the online commerce could generate additional $4 billion in sales despite the shadow of economy slowdown in US. So if you intend to invest some retailers stock, you’ve the above companies to choose from. Watch out for their earning announcements. And as usual you should know which my favorite amongst them is.

Pritzkers’ feud offers $4.5 billion opportunity to Buffett

Silently, Warren Buffett could be one of the investors hoping for the much talked about recession to happen sooner rather than later to the US economy. It might sounds cruel but the fact is this legendary Oracle of Omaha has been waiting for opportunities – prices fall to rock-bottom levels. He might just have found one, though it's a public listed company, before the end of 2007. His flagship Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A, stock) is buying 60% of Marmon Holdings Inc., which has about $7 billion in annual revenue.

On one side of the ring you’ve the second richest man in the world, Warren Buffett, who has $47 billion war-chest looking for acquisitions. On the other side of the ring you’ve the Pritzker Empire which is facing the 11-way split, due in 2011. The 11 siblings and cousins who were involved in the previous internal feuds would stand to get their shares should there be any more holdings not liquidated by 2011. The deal will help Pritzker family, which still controls the Hyatt hotel chain, to advance a plan to liquidate its holdings, which are estimated to be worth about $15 billion.

The Pritzker Empire was founded in Chicago more than a century ago by penniless Ukrainian immigrant Nicholas Pritzker who later became a successful lawyer. However it was his grandsons Jay (lawyer and deal maker) and Robert Pritzker (engineer) who began the family’s real estate business when Jay purchased the first Hyatt hotel in 1957. Jay's death in 1999 saw the crumbling of the family’s empire.

It was reported that the $4.5 billion deal for a 60 percent stake in Marmon Holdings was sealed within two-weeks of negotiations. Berkshire will acquire the remaining 40 percent of Marmon over the next five or six years at a price that will be based on the future earnings of the company. Marmon posted revenue of $7 billion and profit of $1 billion in financial year 2006 from operations like wire and cable, railroad tank cars (something related to Warren’s existing railroad business) and water treatment systems.

Buffett said he likes "the kind of fundamental businesses" Marmon is in, and its position in those businesses. He said he plans to keep Marmon's chief executive, Frank S. Ptak, in place, and hopes to add some "bolt-on acquisitions." Hence with the uncertainty in the stock markets particularly in relation to the possibility of a US economy slowdown, it’s wise to allocate a good ratio of stocks against cash in hand.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Bored with railroads, Warren found his new toy
• Warren Buffett the upcoming RailRoads Tycoon?

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Silly Mistakes, Making Money and Christmas Eve’s Joy

Christmas has been kind to Apple Inc. but definitely no Santa’s visit to Googleplex on the last remaining couple of trading hours before the happiest day of the year – Christmas 2007. Yeap, the stock markets will be close early on 24th Dec, Christmas Eve – three hours early for people to celebrate the holiday. Depending on your geographical location (longitude and latitude) the Xmas bells might have already rang.

As much as the joy of holiday (believe it or not I’ve been listening to Christmas songs non-stop since this morning) was on the air, I made the mistake of closing the wrong position. So, instead of Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) AAPL Jan2008 165 Call Option, I accidently clicked on AAPL Apr 2008 180 Call Optionwithout realizing it until it was filled, although both were in the profitable position *kick myself*. Yeah, you can laugh at me. Go on and laugh it loud “HO HO HO!”

There’s another thing that you might wanna laugh. See the chart down here? How many option traders out there would have bought at $184 level, watched it skyrocket to $196 level only to see the position plunged back to $180 level “without” taking any action? Was my timing right when I opened the position on 5th Dec 2007? Going by the chart – definitely! In fact it was good money but I screwed it, well, temporarily.
If you could remember, there was this period when technology stocks’ tumbledue to the so-called sub-prime’s effect. Technology stocks were punished un-necessarily. That was the huge reversal cycle of Apple Inc.’s (and other tech-stocks) bullishness. It recovered from as low as $152 at one point to above $180. StockTube opened the position on 5th Dec – just comfortably above $184.

One of the reasons why I love trading Apple’s option again and again is the fact that once it was trading at the normal pace (not like the tumble’s mentioned), you tend to be able to understand its cycle well. If you look at the chart, you’ll notice how the minor support and resistance levels help you in making good money. The date 11th Dec was the day the mini pull-back occurred again, though this time itwasn’t as severe as the first round. My reason for holding back might sounds silly but I believed the $200 level should be within reach.

Okay, here’s the magic number for Apple Inc. Since its huge gap-up on 23th Oct 2007, the stock has been registering a new high of $4 a share on its next subsequent stock price. So on 6th Nov 2007, you’ve a new high of $192. Then on 11th Dec 2007, you’ve a new high of $196 and the time duration is getting closer for the next new high. And today, on Christmas Eve, you’ve watching Apple Inc.’s stock price trying to test the $200 level. Just look at the intraday’s wave of new high and the volume. It’s a sight you can’t get everyday – simply magnificent.

But this time I’m not going to wait and see it plunges again, the same way it did previously, without taking some money off the table. Only this time I closed the wrong expiration Call option. Heck, I’ll just wait for it to make its traditional pullback before open new position again. Don’t you just love cyclic stocks that are predictable? Okay you can call me names again on the above’s silliness; I won’t curse you no matter what because it’s Christmas and to be able to make money on Christmas Eve is a double happiness. So Merry Christmas to all the traders out there. Cheers!!!

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Google and Priceline’s Profits on Expiration Friday
• Stocks Investing - don’t run naked with the crowds
• Technology Stocks’ Tumble Exaggerated

Monday, December 24, 2007

Former PM Thaksin to returns home with PPP’s victory

Unofficial results (with 96% of the vote counted) from Sunday's general election gave pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP) 232 of the 480 seats in parliament, just short of the absolute majority needed to govern Thailand alone. The party, which has promised to bring former premier Thaksin Shinawatra back from his self-imposed exile in Britain, claimed victory on Sunday and immediately began courting potential partners.

While Surapong Suebwonglee, secretary general of the PPP, claimed they had received enough support from other parties to form a coalition government he however declined to name which parties had agreed to join PPP. The Democrat Party, which came in second with 165 seats, has already refused to join a PPP-led government. So PPP depends on the remaining five minority parties which captured the other 83 seats, with Chart Thai seen as the potential partner.

With no party having a strong mandate it is believed the situation offers little hope to Thai business leaders who are hoping for a clearer direction to the nation’s economy. Since the military ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in September 2006, consumer confidence has plunged to five-year lows while domestic investment and consumption have been sluggish. The army-backed government who has no economy knowledge whatsoever only worsened business sentiment by imposing tough foreign currency controls while proposing stiff limits on foreign investments, sending foreign investors away.

If PPP could form a coalition and dominate the government, PPP leader Samak Sundaravej would become Thailand's new prime minister. Samak told CNN Sunday that February 14 - Valentine's Day - would be a good day for Thaksin to return from exile in London, but that he would have to face corruption charges filed against him. He said a new parliament controlled by the PPP would pass an amnesty law to allow Thaksin's return and amend the constitution to allow his return to politics.

It would be interesting to watch the reaction(s) from Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej who endorsed (quietly) the coup de’tat by General Prem Tinsulanonda who toppled the twice-elected Thaksin in a bloodless coup in September 2006, banning Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party. Any public action(s) by General Prem would be seen as the public voice of King Bhumibol. Surely the general cannot launch another coup should PPP decided officially to welcome back Thaksin as it would be suicidal to the already ailing (slowly but surely) Thailand’s economy.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• How Much Did Thailand Lose In 24 Hours?
• Panic Sell-Off Forced Thailand To Lifts Investment Controls
• Thai Currency Under Attack Again After 1997 Crisis?

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Why you shouldn’t invest on Brokers’ Stocks for now

Obviously you should refrain yourself from thinking, let alone committing more money investing stocks related to stock-broking i.e. the stock-brokers or investment banks that are listed in the KLSE (Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange) – at least temporarily. Stock-brokers business is primarily depend on daily transaction volume. The more the merrier so when the daily volume exceeded the 1 billion mark these listed companies rejoiced. When the stock exchange recorded less than the mentioned figure, almost all the stock-brokers’ stock prices plunged. And the cycle continues.

Unless the stock-brokers are diversifed such as TA Enterprises Berhad which was forced to venture into property development and investment during the bearish market in order to survive, they who rely solely on stockbroking business as their bread and butter would see the immediate pinch of any slowdown. Others such as OSK Holdings Berhad (KLSE: OSK, stock-code 5053), K & N Kenanga Holdings Berhad (KLSE: KENANGA, stock-code 6483) and Hwang-DBS (M) Berhad (KLSE:HDBS, stock-code 6688) have shown weakness in their stock prices since the first quarter run-up.

Of course the year 2007 has been kind to all the stock-brokers with the mini-bull (I still think it’s a miniature one compare to the 1993 Super Bull as the current bull is not broad-based) sniffing around compare to previous year. But if you look at the monthly shares transaction (diagram above) from Jan 2007 till today (the Dec’s volume is not complete in the diagram above), you should be able to notice the downtrend. No doubt since the 1997-1998 Asia Crisis, some of the stockbrokers have diversified such as TA Enterprises. In fact TA Enterprise perhaps is the most diversified stockbroker which ventures into the property arena, during the period when the owner, Tony Tiah, took the back-seat hibernating leaving the enterprise to his wife, Alicia Tiah.

Nevertheless stockbroking is still the main revenue generator to TA, with total revenue combined from property investment, property development and hotel operations couldn’t even breach (though the figure comes pretty close) the revenue from stockbroking alone, judging from the consolidated income for the fiancial quarter ended 31 Oct 2007. Brokerage fees which constitute the bulk of the income from daily transaction volume still play the vital part. Hence can you imagine the direct impact to broker house(s) that survives mainly from such fees?

So who can you blame if you blindly bought such stocks thinking the quarterly earnings would grow exponentially (forever)? Hmmm, there must be something terribly wrong with the whole picture. The KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) is of all time high, even higher than the 1993 Super Bull-Run. The daily transaction volume on certain day definitely put the 1993’s bull to shame. But somehow the bullishness wasn’t broad-based. So what went wrong?

Could the current bull (if you insist on calling it so) signal a new trend in, well, bull in Malaysia stock market such that people are smart and mature enough not to chase non-bluechips? Or could the new trend simply means the previous 1993’s way of pushing stock prices 10 or 20 times higher is already history? Maybe there’s a co-relation between US equity markets with Malaysia’s bull – so much so that the local and foreign hands are as quick as US traders in dumping the stocks the moment crisis such as sub-prime exploded.

Malaysia’s Bank Negara (Central Bank) might have taken the easy route by maintaining the interest rate, despite US Feds’ multiple cuts, hoping the wide-gap would force foreign fund managers to park their hot money in Malaysia. However that doesn’t means the foreign money can’t find other alternatives. Without external hot money, the government can only depends on retail investors. Unless the current administration knows how to bring back the economy from its feet, retailers might think twice about committing more resources which in turn will depress the stock-brokers even further.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Google and Priceline’s Profits on Expiration Friday

Decided (not that I’ve other choice) to take profit today as it’s the Friday Expiration for options for the month of Dec 2007. Overall the stock markets were more positive and broad-based with Dow up by 3-digits and Nasdaq jumped more than 30-points. What a day to lock in profit. Please note that I let my option positions to run as it was deep in the money and the only thing I was looking for was the stock prices movement. There’s no more time-value. Only intrinsic value was my buddy and the timing couldn’t be better to take whatever profit left.

First it was Google’s GOOG Dec 630 Call that got triggered. Then it’s the Priceline’s PCLN Dec 100 Call’s turn to make some pocket monies. It was almost two months wait to lock in the profit, not that there wasn’t any opportunity before but I decided to hold on despite the recent major pullback. Remember when I said it was silly that the technology-stocks were punished for the mistakes done by the financial institutions? I didn’t run naked with the rest of the panicky but my profit surely was eroded by those events.

I could but preferred not to wait and see if both Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG,stock) and Priceline.com Incorporated (Nasdaq: PCLN, stock) could break-up from its current high at the later part of the trading hours. But I decided to hold on for Apple Inc. to shows how far it could go since the speculation of Apple’s 3G iPhone might makes its landing in Japan. Yeah, I might be greedy with Apple’s AAPL Jan 2008 165 and AAPL Apr 2008 180 Calls but I still have some little time to check things out. Furthermore compare to Google which shows very strong resistance above $698 and Priceline’s resistance above $118, Apple didn’t behave in such manner.

So, let’s see if Dow and Nasdaq could go even higher to which the rest of the regional stock markets depend very much on it when Monday’s trading starts.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Stocks Investing - don’t run naked with the crowds
• Technology Stocks’ Tumble Exaggerated

Friday, December 21, 2007

Oracle and Google brought cheers to Tech-Stocks

Thursday was the trading day that saw investors / traders primarily concentrated on technology stocks. The Dow didn’t perform and only managed to up by 0.29% or 38.37 points – still it was well above the support and psychological 13,000 level. However Nasdaq was up by 1.53% or 39.85 points to 2,640.86 points. That was enough to bring cheers to technology stocks such as Apple Inc., Google Inc., Priceline.com Inc. and Oracle Corp., of course.

Basically, there were two news that contributed well into the otherwise another boring trading session. Firstly the strong profits by Oracle Corp. brought back optimism to investors, at least temporarily, after days of economic slowdown haunting. Oracle's results indicate that some companies will still be able to show growth even as tight credit markets make it harder for some companies to raise capital – reported AP.
Secondly, it was none other than Google Inc. itself which add muscle to the technology stocks after the U.S. Federal Trade Commission on Thursdayapproved Google's pending acquisition of DoubleClick (acquired back in Apr for $3.1 billion). However Google’s hurdle with European Commission (EC) still remains the biggest stumbling block. Approval from U.S. regulators doesn't guarantee approval from European regulators and if the EC votes no, it would probably limit Google’s opportunity for revenue and profit growth although the giant search engine will not collapse, obviously.

With Google’s financial strength, it could either build its own display advertisement network or buy a similar DoubleClick company but of a smaller size to prevent opposition from the EC. On the other hand, Friday will be the expiration Friday for options traders. Hence expect the usual unusual high volatility for the day.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Operation Normandy II – Apple’s 3G-iPhone Invasion

Japan’s NTT DoCoMo seems to be the latest partner that Steve Jobs is trying to court. Rumours were spreading that NTT and Apple Inc.’s(Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) were cooking something before the former confirmed on Wed 19th Dec that its president, Masao Nakamura, had met with Apple’s Steve Jobs. The odd is getting higher that Apple’s iPhone would reach the soil of Japan.

Kyodo News reported that DoCoMo is Apple’s top choice in a plan to penetrate Japan’s market with its iPhone. However the biggest stumbling block would be the formula on subscriber revenue sharing. Apple Inc. has multiple distribution partners in other countries including US AT&T’s (NYSE: T, stock). Amongst them are Deutsche Telekom in Germany, Orange in France and O2 in United Kingdom.

Besides NTT DoCoMo, Apple Inc. has entered talks with Softbank Mobile, NTT’s competitor, as well. Interestingly Japan’s mobile network doesn’t runs GSM / Edge network. Hence if iPhone was to enter Japan’s market it has to be based on UTMS / HSDPA network – which means it’s going to be a 3G iPhone. However iPhone needs to do some homeworks or tweaking if the Japanese texting style is anything to goes by, of which could be easily accomplished by deploying a virtual QWERTY keyboard.

Nevertheless features wise the Japanese consumers might be yawning at iPhone since most Japanese phones are functionality-riched; but their interest could be in the slick touch-screen interface and elegant design. Consumers in Japan are looking at nothing less than a good camera with video capability (obviously) ability in ringtones selection and texting input similar to current Japanese phones (so that they don’t have to re-learn again).

Japan currently has over 73 million 3G subscribers, over a third of whom are on flat-rate data plans – meaning fast downloads of full-track music and video without having to pay extra packet charges for the data. While it was speculated that Apple Inc. is asking for 10% in terms of revenue sharing, DoCoMo was arm-folded with the message “Go fly Kite, Steve!!!” (Apple Inc.'s stock price to fly instead?)

Know About Your Money – Finding The Best Credit Card Deal

Gone were the days when you need to satisfy the tight requirements before you can walk away as the proud owner of a credit card. Recently I received a credit card issued by Citibank that comes specifically with goodies if you're a frequent traveller of AirAsia. Credit card marketing is gettingcreative, what more with other corporate partnerships. It's rather difficult to live without a credit card, at least not me. But I still believe that unless you can control your spending habit and able to pay your outstanding, don't try walking around with one.

If your financial situation is a little precarious coming up to the New Year then your resolution should be to sort it out. After Christmas there is no better time to sort out your finances and credit card debt because you can accurately gage what you can afford to pay out in order to get it clear. There will also be more and morecredit card offers available to you so you can make the most of them and choose the best one for you if you compare credit cards effectively.

But how can you do that? It can be a lot of time and hassle, unless you use one of the better credit card comparison websites available. One of those that you should consider using is About Your Money. This is one of the newer ones but it is just as good as the larger ones and is not peppered with advertising! There arecompare credit cards tables, interest rates, offers and anything else you may want to know all laid out in a handy package that is extremely easy to use.

To be honest, there are that many credit cards available at the moment that you would be forgiven for getting confused when you try to compare them. That may be why they have provided a guide as well to help you to figure out what you want and need. Check it out because you'll find it much better than taking a stab in the dark and choosing the wrong one!

However as usual, credit card is a tool to facilitate whenever you're short of cash. So treat it as a tool of convenience and not a tool to be abused.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Can Proton just make up its mind on the partnership?

Less than a month since ailing Malaysian carmaker Proton Holdings Bhd(KLSE: PROTON, stock-code 5304) abruptly called off any negotiation with both Germany's Volkswagen (FRA: VOW) and US-based General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM, stock), the reason begun to appears although it’s still hard to determine if this could be the actual reason - NAZA Group was given preferential option to become the strategic partner for Proton Holdings Berhad.

While StockTube still thinks the initial talk ended due to its sensitivity with general election around the corner, Volkswagen should not waste any more time playing to the tune of the national carmaker. Just after Proton announced the call-off, the same party announced it didn’t close the door entirely and the talk could resume. And now you have this NAZA Group trying to play the white-knight role. The lame reason given for the initial call-off was that Proton registered a net profit of RM3.5 million on revenue of RM1.3 billion, the first quarterly profit after six continuous quarterly losses.

However it doesn’t takes a rocket scientist to undertand the profit was purely due to the model launched, Proton Persona with over 20,000 bookings, of which if you look closer it was a minor facelift from the older version of Gen-2. Furthermore the RM3.5 million net profits were too tiny to be celebrated, let alone declaring the carmaker was out of wood. Surely Proton’s management and Malaysian government aren’t stupid to acknowledge this (are they?). The government also repeatedly announced that Proton would not get a local partner (NAZA or DRB-Hicom) as both parties didn’t have distinct value-propositions that could push Proton to the next level of survival.

Miraculously you have Deputy Prime Minister Najib who said the government might still consider a partnership with local players despite the termination of talks with the foreign players. So which is which? Could the government or the Proton’s management make up their mind for the sake of long-term survival of the local champion (if only they can survive)? Now it’s pretty obvious what can NAZA or DRB-Hicom deliver to Proton. They’re purely distributor and to certain stage assembler. Both NAZA and DRB-Hicom do not have the expertise in designing (locally), let alone conducting R&D (reseach and development) to compete with global players. You still can buy Proton’s car today despite more than 10-years old of age.

If Proton decided to sleep with local partner, then it’s time to define the framework of its business model. Do what the local boys are good at – distribution. Don’t even try to do assembly unless they can improve on the quality. You might think how hard it could be to achieve top-quality in assembly-lines. Well, if they can do it, you won’t have the same decades-long complaints about problems (amazingly each Proton model has its own trademark of problems) till now.

However the magic bullet for Proton to prolong its life depends on its luck in China’s market. If Proton could just put more resources in ensuring high quality for its Europestar model with competitive pricing, it might just be able to float temporarily – until it falls into quarterly losses again (that would be another story for another time).

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• VW-Proton talks ended, sensitive issue during Election
• New PROTON Model with Old Design Launched
• Why Proton Needs Rebranding as Europestar for China?
• PROTON Saga Ending - VW as New Boss with 51%
• 5 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Investing Proton Stocks

Monday, December 17, 2007

Jim is still the Mad Cramer, make no mistake about it

There’re not many crazy stock investors or traders around, at least not that StockTube is aware of. However when you have someone as crazy and mad as Jim Cramer you just got to be both flabbergasted and thrilled. If you’ve been trading for a while in the US stock markets chances are you should know this crazy fella who didn’t give a damn when he got mad or irritated at somebody or something. He’s easily one of the best stock entertainers around and you can’t miss him if you glued yourself to CNBC.

Mad Cramer might be, well, crazy but he did help lots of people in the basic fundamental of stocks investing. He dares to make a call on stocks that he think are fabulous and he won’t think twice about telling his audience to flush stocks down the toilet if he hates them. Yes, he runs radio shows that attracted great number of followers and he’s influence all right judging by how certain stocks jumped the moment he recommended it. While he was proud and enjoyed every moment of his influence, he was responsible enough to advise his fanatic fans not to chase the stocks that were bid-up ridiculously high as a result of it – something known as “Cramer Spike”.

Once in May 2007 when Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) was tradingbelow $500, Jim told his viewers to put their money on the seach engine as the stock would be going up to $600, while the rest of the professional investors and analysts told the world to avoid Google. Make no mistake because Jim Cramer was a fund manager before and he knows what he was talking about. What made Jim even crazier was the way he justified Google’s $600 a share value. Due to “contrast” he said Google was the cheapest Internet stocks and the escalation of stock price of Amazon.com Inc (Nasdaq: AMZN, stock) made Google’s stock even cheaper. Using metrics of valuation, Cramer had sales growth of 33% and an operating margin of 4.8% in comparison to Google’s 63% sales growth and a 33% operating margin – Google’s stock was half as cheap as Amazon. So if Google were to get the same valuation as Amazon, Google would be trading at $704.

Jim Cramer, the flamboyant host of CNBC’s Mad Money is seen as the hyperactive stock-picker. But nobody gets past his screening, not even the most powerful man in the global stocks markets – the Feds Chairman Ben Bernanke.His proudest moment of the year (2007) is an on-air tantrum in the middle of the summer's financial crisis, a plea to the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to take action. "He has no idea how bad it is out there. He has no idea!" he told CNBC's Erin Burnett. Watch the video below and judge for yourself how mad, or rather brave he was. Try to do that to Malaysian Prime Minister and you could end up in detention without trial under Internal Security Act (ISA).

He wrote some books and the latest book, Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life, is surprisingly “calm” (or boring?) advises readers to pay off credit cards, make the most of 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts (IRAs), and get the right kinds of insurance. Most people actually won't get rich by buying individual stocks, Cramer says. Unless you do your homework, namely spending an hour a week researching for each stock you own, "You won't beat the market, and you'll probably lose money," he writes. 

Jim may come to his sense that investing long term is probably the bullet to riches after all, compare to short-term traders. One of his critics (reported in BusinessWeek) said Cramer is a "chair-throwing, self-aggrandizing clown who gives terrible advice”; but at the same time couldn’t help but to admit “he's obviously a smart man who knows better”. No matter what, he’s still the Mad Cramer in the Mad Money who helped lots of people making money investing stocks. And I believe he’ll continue to be mad for a very long time. You can search other books written by Jim Cramer here.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• What to do during US Economy Slowdown?
• Stocks Threw the Punches – Cut or No Cut
• Stocks Investing - don’t run naked with the crowds

RHB Bank to be Sold Again, EPF to make good money

Money from Middle East is basically screaming to be flushed elsewhere. While the US dollar is flushing down the toilet, Middle East’s fortune is looking into, well, Islamic countries to be flushed. One of the countries that attracted these hot monies is Malaysia, not a hard thing to understand since Malaysia premier PM has been on the roadshow marketing his version of Islam Hadhari. According to Wikipedia however, the theory of Islam Hadhari was originally founded by the first Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tunku Abdul Rahman in 1957 but was under different name. So the current PM Abdullah Badawi hijacked the theory, renamed it as Islam Hadhari and claimed it’s his own creation?

Well, we’re not going to debate on this issue but rather how the Middle Eastern countries slowly but surely invading Malaysia’s corporate scenes. Let’s face it – with oil prices at current level, the Aladdins are basically speechless with their newly found treasures. They’re on the shopping spree as their own kingdoms are nothing but sands. Besides being the center of oil reserves there’s nothing interesting to invest. So they bought marbles from Italy, Ferraris, private jets, hotels around the world, financial institution from foreign soils and they even tried to buy the port from US but was met with furious controversy over port security and pressure from Congress that they backed-off.

They’re invaded the property sectors and was looking at biofuels (acquisitions of palm oil companies?). And in the name of Islamic Banking, they’re scouting around to establish their presence. Kuwait Finance House (KFH) started the ball-rolling when they tried but lost the bid to EPF (Employees Provident Fund) for a controlling stake in RHB Bank. Though it was a battle of brotherhood (in the name of Islam), EPF still saw the opportunity to make a round of good money hence the brotherhood needs to take the back seat. And if what was reported is going to materialize, EPF is set to make great money.
Having paid RM4.80 a share of RHB Capital (KLSE: RHBCAP, stock-code 1066) to Utama Banking Group (KLSE: UBG, stock-code 6831) to take over RHB banking group it was reported that Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) is close to buying a 25% stake in RHB Capital Bhd from the Employees Provident Fund (EPF). ADBC is said to be willing to pay up to RM7.50 a share for RHB Capital – a cool RM2.70 a share or 56.25 percent profit over what EPF paid for RHB Capital initially.

ADBC which has a market capitalization of over US$7 billion was a result of the merger of Khaleej Bank with Emirates Commercial Bank in 1985. The Government of Abu Dhabi holds 64% of the paid up capital and the balance is held by prominent UAE Institutions and nationals. EPF which needs to trim its stake in the bank to 35% from 82% is still talking with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp which is equally interested in 10% of RHB Capital. Just what could be the final resting place of RHB after its founder retired?

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• The Rise, Fall and Re-emerge of Rashid Hussain Again?
• Next on Middle East’s shopping list - MAHSING
• IDR – Could Middle East do the Trick this time?
• Middle-East Invading Southeast Asia for Biofuels
• Seven Billion Dollars Pipeline – A Rusty Project
• Aladdin's Flying Into Malaysia - Helping MAS's debt problem
• UBG Aye to EPF despite Higher Offer from EON Capital

Sunday, December 16, 2007

2008 Election Polls – USA and Malaysia

Does financial or stock markets related to politic in one way or another? It’s no brainer that the answer is an obvious “Yes”. A government that is unstable, lack of transparency, policies that forever changes, weak and poor governance, bias and so on could only scare off potential investors (both foreign and local). Thomson Financial reported that Malaysia is getting bad publicity as a result of the recent street protests which could impact foreign interest in the Malaysian bourse.

Remember those days when former premier Mahathir bashed currency speculators especially George Soros for wiping out billions of dollars of market capitalization during 1997/1998 Asia Crisis? What about the CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) crisis that crippled the relationship between Malaysia and Singapore which affected almost RM16 billion worth of shares held by 172,000 individuals after Malaysia suddenly banned the CLOB trading? And to think the big boss of Malaysia Bourse has the cheek to ask why listed companies locally command so little premium compare to off-shore listing.

Not many countries have good leader let alone great governance. The nearest you can get might be the United States though I can’t force you to like President Bush. Before you tell me to go and migrate to the country if I don’t like it here, please let me tell you the component I like about US is their transparency especially their financial markets. They might not be 100% angel but the fact that companies are proud to have their corporations listed in either NYSE or Nasdaq speaks volume.

Long story short, it’s time Malaysia starts getting a true leader to lead the nation, although this short statement would remains a dream. It’s a top-bottom as far as the country’s management is concern. The quality of service reflects how the head of department is supervising them and in turns reflects how the the leader is driving the whole entity. So if you have a sleepy and weak Prime Minister, expect nothing more than a similar Ministerships throughout the Cabinet. It’s quite easy to choose a capable leader really. As a start put the candidates wishing for the position onopen and public debates on how and what they plan to do for the country. Let the nation’s voters watch it live.

Guess what! With days before the 2007 is behind us, it appears Malaysia’s general election might be held on the same year as United States 2008 Election. And based on the polls, it seems the Americans are giving the wife of former President Clinton a comfortable 43% lead with Obama trailing behind with 25%. Yahoo has launched the Election 2008 Political Dashboard. It’s simple yet interesting to see the indicators for each candidate. Besides Polls, you have “Buzz” numberswhich shows how much candidates are being searched for on Yahoo’s search engine.
The next mind-boggling indicator is the “Prediction Market” values that act similar to stock prices for political candidates. It allows investors to buy “shares”in candidates – meaning the higher the value the more bullish investors are that the stock (candidate) will rise (win). This prediction market data is provided by an Irish company. Cool huh? The last indicator and perhaps the most important (to Malaysia’s public at least) is the financial or the money raised for the candidates (I’m sure US couldn’t beat Malaysian ruling government on this item). .

What do you think the dashboard will looks like putting Malaysia’s political scenario into the same framework? Will it looks something like this?
Other Articles That May Interest You …

• ISA-Mania, can you smell what Badawi’s cooking?
• Rally, Racial and the Race towards the Election
• Malaysia’s Biggest Rallies since 1998 – KL under siege

Friday, December 14, 2007

What to do during US Economy Slowdown?

Just what was Ben Bernanke and company was thinking that it kept cutting the interest rate (the recent being the 25 basis points on 11th Dec 2007) to satisfy the investors and economists? Didn’t the sight of cheaper dollar scare the shit out of Ben to cut it further? How about inflation? Could the word recession haunted Uncle Ben, so much so that he isn’t ready for a recession, the first ever, to hit him since he took over as the Feds Chairman?

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan who ran the central bank for 18 and a half years, until early 2006, says the odds the U.S. will fall into a recession are "clearly rising" and he believes economic growth is "getting close to stall speed." Both individuals were criticized for their policies. Greenspan was criticized for his past policy that fed the housing boom that eventually went bust by holding the interest rates too low for too long after the 2001 recession. Bernanke was criticized for waited too long to cut the Fed's key rate.

Generally analysts are worried about U.S. economic growth. The largest economy growth might shrink to as low as 1.5% but overall a full-blown recession is discounted, at least for now. The reason for the optimism – the job markets are holding up well. Bernanke’s third cut on 11th Dec however is casting a fear over the economy and this shadow of fear is putting uncertainties to the stocks markets. Analysts summarized the following fears over Uncle Ben:

• Fears that the debt markets will stop working because banks are so busy writing off billions and billions in bad mortgages and other loans that they'll stop lending.
• Fears that the problems in the mortgage market, the housing industry and the financial sector, compounded by the effects of rising oil and food prices on consumer spending, will send the economy into a recession.
• Fears of growth as information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending.

But cutting the interest rate won’t help house sales much because despite falling prices the supply of housing is still climbing and mortgage money is tight. Lower interest isn’t the magic-bullet that could take the sub-prime problem away.

With unemployment at just 4.7% and the U.S. economy engine produced jobs at the rate of 100,000 a month as of Nov 2007, the suggestion of a recession is exaggerated. Economists’ survey showed the U.S. economy will generates 84,000 jobs a month in 2008 with unemployment rate at 5.1% in Dec 2008. This means theeconomy is slowing down but definitely not recession.And as long as the economy keeps creating jobs current housing problem alone will not cripple the economy generally. So who are the winners?

• Gold and natural-resource stocks are likely to perform well as inflation fears build and the dollar going down the toilet.
• Fears of lower demand from a U.S. slowdown will depress oil demands and hence you might be happy to note that oil prices might not hit $100 a barrel. However the weakening dollar will keep oil prices well above $80 a barrel. So you should know when to bargain hunt the oil stocks.
• Expect Ben Bernanke and company to continue cutting interest rate in 2008 as U.S. economy slows. This is good news for utility and dividend-paying stocks.
• Of course cash is King during bad times so keep more cash under your belt because chances are you might be able to buy really dirt cheap house(s) with lower interest rate at your disposal while the salesperson will definitely treat you like an emperor.

Remember that in time of crisis is also the time of opportunity. The Chinese term for crisis is "danger-opportunity" (危機).Without the danger there cannot be the opportunity.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Stocks Threw the Punches – Cut or No Cut
• Investors depending too much on Feds to Breastfeed
• Last 25 basis points cut for 2007 amid soaring oil price
• Reasons why U.S. rate cut is a Bad Idea

Thursday, December 13, 2007

ISA-Mania, can you smell what Badawi’s cooking?

Before the 8 million Malaysian viewers happily paid, despite the forever-long advertisements, for Astro’s channels, people in Malaysia relied on VCR (video cassette recorders) for entertainment. Those were the days when Malaysians, regardless of their race would grab a seat and order a glass of “Teh Tarik” which cost less than a ringgit and watch their favorite wrestling episodes via the normal television set. The mamak stall was one of the entertainment outlets for the majority of middle-income group of people. Of course now the same mamak stalls are equipped with flat-TV or projector-TV, not to mention some comes with air-cond.

Surprisingly I didn’t enjoy the current version of mamak stalls despite their free Astro channels provision. Probably they only telecast the football or soccer matches. Maybe they should bring back the good old days style of giving consumers the excitement of wrestling, first known as WWW, WWF and now WWE. Remember those wrestlers such as King Kong Bundy, Hulk Hogan, Andre the Giant, Randy Savage, Ultimate Warrior, UnderTaker, the Hard Foundation, Stone Cold and The Rock – to name some of them?

Now talk about these wrestlers; each of them has their own signature or finishing moves. They also have their own signature songs etc. Of all the wrestlers my favorites are Stone Cold and The Rock. Stone Cold would enter the ring and smash two cans of beers and show you his middle fingers. The Rock would scream “Finally the Rock has come back to Kuala Lumpur New York City (depending on the city the game was held)” before moving his eyebrows.
Yes, Finally Malaysian PM Abdullah Badawi has executed the ISA, the dragonian detention without trial – no more Mr Nice Guy. In the latest news five Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) leaders have been arrested and detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA). As one of the most powerful Prime Minister in the world (Besides PM, he also holds the Finance Minister and Minister of Internal Security), Badawi signed the 2-year detention order under Section 8 (1) of the ISA to detain without trial P. Uthayakumar, M. Manoharan, R. Kenghadharan, V. Ganabatirau and T. Vasanthakumar. Arrested between 12:30pm and 2:30pm the five were sent straight to the Kamunting detention centre in Taiping, Perak, to be detained for two years, without undergoing the usual 60-day investigation period – reported MalaysiaKini.

Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's administration has been rocked by a slew of public protests in recent weeks. Despite Badawi’s pledge that he actually has “Big Ears” to listen to people, scores of activists have been detained and charged with illegal assembly. AP reported that Malaysia's opposition parties and rights groups Wednesday urged the government to heed public demands for racial justice and electoral reforms if it wants to prevent further street demonstrations.

Badawi who repeatedly said the street demonstrations (no matter how peaceful) are not part of Malaysian culture. Interestingly, UMNO, the party he’s leading was the same party that demonstrated againsts the formation of Malayan Union by British government back in 1946. So it’s not true that street demonstration was not part of the nation’s culture, let alone UMNOs’. Instead, street demonstrations were one of the contributing factors that Malaysia gained Independence from British.

What can be seen now is the short-cut route taken by Badawi to suppress the people on the street’s growing frustration against his administration. Would the PM continue to sign detention order to other leaders who held the Bersih (The Coalition for Clean and Fair Election) previously, now that all the leaders of Hindraf (Hindu Rights Action Force) are behind bar? Would the PM even put former Deputy PM Anwar under ISA to prevent him from contesting the next general election? Would the PM even give a damn to all the oppositions and anyone who question his administration and policies?
With more than two-third majority given by the voters (the same people who are grumbling now), basically the PM can do anything, even to change the Constitution anyway he likes. The PM has proposed the bill to amend Article 114 of the Federal Constitution, which will effect in Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman’s extension as the Election Commission (EC) Chairperson up to one-and-a-half years, despite objections as Abdul Rashid has demonstrated bias towards the ruling government. In the latest example Abdul Rashid mentioned only the current regime (ruling government) could administer the country when he should be independent in ensuring a fair election process.

You got to see how the Member of Parliament was being assaulted and humiliated (without any respect) to judge how deteriote the current system is, there’s no court order mind you. So what if Malaysia is turned to “police state”?Who can do anything about it? Who can lecture the PM even if he’s striking back with more ISA(s)? Absolutely nobody, not even The Rock and Stone Cold combined ‘cos StockTube said so. Can you smell what Badawi is cooking *two cans of beer please*? Finally, Badawi has come back to evil-ISA town!!!

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Video: Member of Parliament assaulted and humiliated
• Rally, Racial and the Race towards the Election
• Delayed Toll Hike – bait for voters before election
• Malaysia’s Biggest Rallies since 1998 – KL under siege

IOI building muscle to become Stronger and Bigger

Although it wasn’t published officially the people around the palm oil industry knew what awaken the plantation sector. It used to be one of the most boring sectors and the related stocks’ movement could out you to sleep. It started with the Super-Merger that saw the merger of Kumpulan Guthrie Berhad, Sime Darby Berhad and Golden Hope Plantations Berhad creating the biggest listed palm oil producer in the world in terms of output and market value under a new company called Synergy Drive. As expected the branding of Sime Darby was too valuable to be put to sleep and the temporary Synergy Drive was renamed Sime Darby Berhad (SIME: stock-code 4197) again.

In actual fact the Super-Merger involved 9 (nine) listed companies and somehow StockTube believed the shareholders were under-offered. Almost simultaneously, other palm oil players were awaken and sensing that they could beeaten up alive (not that it have not happen before), the boring chess game begun its interesting movement. Less than a month after the mega-merger, IOI Corp Berhad (KLSE: IOICORP, stock-code 1961) acquired Pan Century Group, operator of an edible oils refinery for RM423 million from one of India’s conglomerates, the Aditya Birla Group. The acquisition by IOI Corp created the the world’s biggest vegetable oil-based fatty acid producer in the world.

Then the Kuok Group, controlled by tycoon and richest man in Malaysia, Tan SriRobert Kuok, undertook a mammoth S$6.6 billion (RM15.18 billion) corporate exercise to merge several of its companies in Malaysia and Singapore - Wilmar International Ltd (SIN: F34) and PPB Oil Palms Bhd (KLSE: PPB, stock-code 4065). It was then Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad’s (KLSE: KLK, stock-code 2445) turn when it announced the acquisition of Swiss-based Dr W Kolb Holdings AG, a specialty oleochemical holdings company, for 135 million Swiss francs (RM393.39 million).
Amongst all the players, the most aggressive would be IOI Corp Berhad. Taking the second seat in terms of market capitalization behind Sime Darby Berhad is not a situation to be taken with complacency. In terms of landbank IOI Corp’s figure stands at 320,000 ha (after the 152,504ha of palm oil plantation in Kalimantan from Indonesia's Harita Group) while Sime Darby is comfortably at 543,626ha of landbank. And IOI Corp’s executive chairman Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng has no plan of stopping at the current level.

Yesterday, it was reported that IOI shareholders approved a planned US$600 million (RM2 billion) issue of bonds exchangeable to new shares. "We actually have enough funds for expansion and upgrading of manufacturing facilities. The money from this bond issue is mainly for acquisitions." IOI executive chairman Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng said after shareholders meeting in Putrajaya.

While Lee said the company was looking at either Malaysia or the region for future acquisitions and it’s not to “compete” with Sime Darby, you just got to take that with a pinch of salt. He knew too well how the corporate scenes in Malaysia are being played. Furthermore to be known as the most efficient producer in squeezing six tonnes of crude palm oil per hectare in a year, Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng is no ordinary man you could squeeze easily. In addition there is still some RM300 million left unspent in IOI's planned capital expenditure for the current year ending June 2008. Add that to the latest RM2 billion war-chests from the bonds issued and you can guarantee of more interesting acquisition(s) from IOI Corp.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Forget about TMT stocks, here come the Replacements
• Kuok Group Consolidates To Defend Palm Oil Business
• Plantation Merger & Acquisition Heating Up
• Guthrie, Sime, Golden-Hope Shareholders Under-Offered
• Who's Behind Synergy Drive?
• After The Super-Merger Will Others Follow?

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Stocks Threw the Punches – Cut or No Cut

FOMC’s announcement at 2:16 ET Tuesday that the Fed decided to cut the rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% didn’t go well with stocks investors. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P plunged 344, 83 and 46 points, respectively. The sell-off was expected since the investors appetite was for 50 basis points cut to 4.0% to address some of the liquidity strains weighing on the financial markets.

On the bright side, the Fed policy statement did leave open the prospect of further rate cuts. Hopefully the panic selling will subside eventually. Of course I’m still holding some minor positions on Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock), Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) and Priceline.com Incorporated (Nasdaq: PCLN, stock) Call Options. I think the market over-reacted and tried to show its disappointment with the 25 basis points cut. Bernanke actually has taken the mid-way with the cut from the original plan to leave the interest rate unchanged in December.

However the demand for higher cut somehow overshadowed the generousity of the cut yesterday. Bernanke could do nothing but he chose to dance to the tune of the investors at large. Matching the Fed's move, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority also cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 percent Wednesday. The territory's rates tend to track those in the U.S. because the local currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index finished down 0.7 percent at 15,932.26, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 2.4 percent at 28,521.06. Australia and Singapore both fell about 1 percent while Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index was down 10.44 points to close at 1,423.72. Despite the plunge, some lower liners such as Berjaya Corporation Berhad (KLSE: BJCORP, stock-code 3395) and its ICULS registered positive gains. AEON Credit Service (M) Berhad (KLSE:AEONCR, stock-code 5139) which is listing its shares today saw a gain of 33.60% or RM0.84 a share from its IPO stock price of RM2.50. If your application for the AEON Credit’s IPO was successful, Congratulation!

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• The Stock Market wants 50 basis points cut
• Stocks Investing - don’t run naked with the crowds
• Investors depending too much on Feds to Breastfeed

Investing Gold Bullion 24 hours a day at BullionVault

Since thousands of years ago gold has been the most reliable currency or valuable metals human ever used, even until today. During past revolutions when paper money was dumped as the values drops into the toilet, gold’s value remained or even escalated. Even now when U.S. dollar depreciates, investors rush to protect their investment in terms of gold.

It’s not easy for individual investor to buy gold for investment as it’s not easy to safely buy and store it in a cost-effective way, unless you’re talking about buying gold-chains, bracelets or other ready-made products from shops. But if you’re talking about gold bars with 99.5% purity your choices are quite limited. BullionVault is one of the options you might want to consider if the glittering ofgold bullion investment is what you’re looking for.

The company claimed that you can own and keep the gold you bought in any quantity in officially recognized bullion vaults in London (UK), New York (USA), or Zurich (Switzerland). Buyers and sellers’ trust is based on the Good Delivery form. Besides being able to buy just a small portion of a 400-ounce gold bar you can also trade online in increments as small as 1 gram. The commission charged ranges from as low as 0.02% to the maximum 0.8% when you’re buying gold.

So if you’re interested in investing real gold, then you might want to check out BullionVault which is the only gold market in the world that stays open 24 hours a day, at least that’s what it claimed. You can also check out the gold price chart here.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Why I don’t trade Apple-C1 shares?

OSK Investment Bank really knows how to pick the stock especially when comes to list call warrants (CW) of American stocks. After listed Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) call warrant (GOOGLE-C1) recently, today it’s listing Apple Inc.’s (Nasdaq: AAPL, stock) Call Warrant as APPLE-C1 (stock-code 0528C1) on the Malaysian Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.

Coincidently both Google Inc. and Apple Inc. are StockTube’s favorite technology stocks which had made good money and hopefully it’ll stay that way. While I prefer to trade the stocks’ option instead of the Call Warrants (CW) issued by local investment banks, you can still get the exposure by trading the CWs although there’re certain reasons why I’m avoiding the CWs at this moment.
Apple-C1 has the following characteristics which you should know:

• Conversion / Exercise Price = US$171.50
• Conversion / Exercise Ratio = 1200
• Expiry Date = 3rd July 2008
• IPO Price = RM0.11

You should notice the variable or the unknown fluctuation from the above items namely the exercise price that is denominated in US dollars. The US dollars had weaken since the last interest rate cut and if Ben Bernanke continues to cut the interest rate on Tuesday, you can expect the Malaysia Ringgit to strengthen further.

The exchange rate for USD to Ringgit was 1 USD to RM3.3185 as of Dec 10. This means the following:

• Conversion / Exercise Price: US$171.50 x 3.3185 = RM 569.12
• Apple-C1 trading stock price as of 11th Dec 2007 = RM 0.125
• Let’s exercise the CW: RM0.125 x 1200 = RM150
• Add it to the Exercise Price: RM569.12 + RM150 = RM719.12

Now, let’s see the last stock price of Apple Inc. traded in Nasdaq after Dec 10’s closing. The share closed at US$194.21 per share which will translate into RM 644.49 ($194.21 x 3.3185). So you’re paying a premium of 11.58 percent or RM 74.63 for the time value until 3rd July 2008. Let’s assume the premium of 11.58 percent and currency exchange rate will stays until the expiry date, although it’s very unlikely. It’s for computation sake.

If Apple Inc. climbs to US$204.21 ($10 bucks) you’ll have the following:

• In Ringgit: $204.21 x 3.3185 = RM 677.67
• The total exercise price and ratio= RM756.14 (11.58% premium)
• The un-exercise 1200 CWs: RM756.14 – RM569.12 = RM187.02
• Each CW: RM187.02 / 1200 = RM0.156

So, can you see why it’s so damn complicated and not attractive to trade the U.S. stocks based on such a huge conversion ratio in the local stock market? The volatility is not there. And when the Apple Inc. stock jumps US$10 a share, your gain in CW is only RM0.031. Of course the above illustration is based on the assumption that the premium and currency exchange rate remains static at the above figures.

Also Apple Inc. is currently trading at 12-months high. Although I’m optimistic that Apple has more room for growth, I could probably make more money trading Call or Put Option directly from the U.S. stock markets mainly due to the volatility and one to one relationship between the stock and the option. The Apple-C1 Call Warrant is simply too “diluted”.Unless the Apple-C1 traded at a “discount” while the Apple Inc. is on new rally, I’ll just keep monitoring the Call Warrant - the same reason why I’m not into Google-C1 stock. It’s like tasting Starbucks Corp.’s (Nasdaq: SBUX, stock)Latte with 1,200 times of dilution.

However I can’t discount the possibility of speculation movement to the Apple-C1 stocks. Furthermore with such a “penny stock’s value” how hard could it be to push it up or down at the convenience of syndicates? Trade at your own risk.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Now Malaysian can trade Google stocks literally
• Google and Apple stocks, my money making machine
• Know The Difference - Warrants & Call-Warrants

Monday, December 10, 2007

TechTicker for Technology Stocks Investors

If only two of the most successful search engines could be merged into a single entity it will create a new giant unbeatable for a very long time to come. But I guess the anti-trust in U.S. will most likely prevent this to happen.Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) and Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO, stock) merged as the most powerful internet company in the world? In terms of making money, I’ve blogged previously how StockTube’s luck somehow was with Google while Yahoo was the obvious loser – in option trading.

Google’s main success was in its search engine which translates into billions of dollars of profit in online advertising revenue. Yahoo’s most successful program is perhaps in its financial site, so much so that Google tried to emulate by its’ ownfinance.google.com – without much success, yet. Pushing ahead it appears Yahoo Finance is putting the final touches on a new online program – TechTicker.
TechTicker, the web-program will report exclusively on technology stocks, offering daily streaming-video segments and blog posts, as well as some live coverage of breaking news. Trying to further differentiate itself from Google, Yahoo is betting video (how it wishes it owns YouTube) will play greater role in presenting contents to consumers – assuming high-speed internet access will becomes more prevalent.

However Yahoo is expected to face tough competition and challenge from existing cable news providers such as CNBC, Bloomberg Television and Fox Business Network, not that Yahoo has not fail before. Back in 2000 when Yahoo Inc. tried the FinanceVision, an online version of a round-the-clock cable business channel, it was met with little success and was shut down two years later.

On the other hand if TechTicker could pull in the success string, Google Finance would find it harder to narrow the gap between both of them.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• Little Secret in Making Money trading GOOGLE
• Yahoo’s Weakness is Google’s Gain

Sunday, December 09, 2007

Larry Page’s Wedding – sign the Agreement first, bride

Larry Page’s wedding on Dec. 8 is supposed to be a secret event, at least that’s what the co-founder of the most successful internet company Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG, stock) hoped for. Page will be married (or already depending on your time-zone) to Lucy Southworth at an undisclosed location. Rumor said the location could be on Necker Island, Richard Branson's 74-acre estate in the British Virgin Islands. If Larry Page was not the co-founder of Google Inc. then nobody would give a damn but here you’ve a young and probably a person who could climb the ladder to become the world’s richest man on earth.

Marriages of the rich and famous are perhaps one of the great stories many publishers or journalists would like to get their hands on. But if you’re as rich as Larry Page then you might want to get a good lawyer. According to New York divorce lawyer Raoul Felder "A billionaire has to treat an upcoming marriage as a merger. But it's a merger with a potential enemy." Not only Page’s wife could potentially become a billionaire herself in case of a divorce (depending on the agreement) but there’re tons of other agreements that both the happy couple could have (or need to) signed.
As a starter Lucy might not be allowed to reveals any confidential information about the marriage in case of divorce. You can bet the moment the word divorce even mentioned there would be tons of offers from television to do interviews. There’s a saying that without love the next important thing in a woman’s life is money, though it might not be true all the time but you’re talking about U.S. here. With Google’s stock price at $700 a share, Lucy is smiling at $10 billion – half of Larry Page’s fortune.

Saturday, December 08, 2007

The Rise, Fall and Re-emerge of Rashid Hussain Again?

He was almost invincible in the corporate world. His stock-broking firm was the first to be listed in the Malaysian Stock Exchange after incorporated Rashid Hussain Securities in 1983 together with Chua Ma Yu. Two decades later in 2003 Tan Sri Rashid Hussain left the RHB Group after selling his final 17.3 per cent equity stake in Rashid Hussain Berhad to Utama Banking Group (KLSE : UBG, stock-code 6831) for RM732 million following a bitter tussle for control.

Feng shui master might tell you that based on his destiny and luck chart (or pillar),his 20-years of good luck were already over. Rashid Hussain could hope on his next cycle of luck for a corporate comeback but it depends on his age of which the next luck-cycle starts (if there’s any). Not even as the son-in-law of Robert Kuok could help in any way against the changes in political waves. Once one of the blue-boys of Daim Zainuddin (for Finance Minister) and closely connected to former deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Rashid has only his ownself to be blamed for mingling with the wrong group of politicians.

Perhaps his biggest mistake could be in extending the loans to the former Transport Minister’s son as part of the politician’s ambitious plan to convert his son to become overnight billionaire via acquisition of Rekapacific Berhad (now defunct). Once out of control, RHB Capital (RHBCAP: stock-code 1066), RHB Equities Sdn Bhd and RHB Investment Bank Bhd (formerly RHB Securities Berhad) sued Tan Sri Rashid Hussain and five other individuals for a total sum of RM1.43 billion for alleged breach of fiduciary duties and alleged negligence in 2005.

The five were Chong Kin Leong in his capacity as former director of RHB Capital and RHB Equities; Seah Fook Chin in his capacity as former director of RHB Capital and RHB Equities; Tajul Ariffin Mohd Tahir in his capacity as former executive director of RHB Securities and in his capacity as former director of RHB Equities; Ong Tiang Lock in his capacity as former director of RHB Equities;Rosley Ahmad in his capacity as former principal legal adviser and former company secretary of RHB Capital, RHB Securities and RHB Equities.

Today, in a surprise move, the RHB Group under the current EPF (Employees Provident Fund) dropped its RM1.4 billion lawsuit against founder Tan Sri Rashid Hussain and five former top executives, putting an end to the 33-month legal battle. It’s amazing how the changes in ownership could change the landscape, at least in terms of securing losses caused by negligence. RM1.4 billion is a lot of money mind you. Maybe the shareholders couldn’t care less about the money so why should we (outsiders) care?

Nevertheless in Malaysia you can never discount any possibilities. Who would have thought that the current PM Abdullah Badawi would walk in the corridors of power when he was with the losers trying unsuccessfully to unseat former premier Mahathir? Who could possibility guarantee that former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim would not make a comeback with the blessing of Badawi? Assuming somehow Anwar’s star could shine again you can bet your last penny the Malaysian corporate world will once again change accordingly and Tan Sri Rashid Hussain might be snooping behind your shoulder.

Other Articles That May Interest You …

• RHB needs to merge to stays Relevant
• The Rise of CELCOM Empire, Tales You Should Know
• Learn from Mistakes - better days ahead for Transmile
• Chua Ma Yu sets to make Good Money Again

Friday, December 07, 2007

Rally, Racial and the Race towards the Election

It’s mind-boggling to read how two rallies being treated differently by Malaysian government. The first rally by Bersih was dominated by PAS-Malay although you can see Chinese and Indian joined the peaceful demonstration. Later part you’ve the second rally by Hindraf dominated by Indian Hindu ethnic protested to highlight racial and religious discrimination by the Muslim Malay-dominated government of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

While the first Bersih rally coverage disappeared as fast as the Russian Sukhoi made the Mach-2 flight by the government controlled-media, the rally by Hindraf was given quite a wide coverage by the same media. Abdullah accused ethnic Indian activists of stirring up racial conflict and threatened to use a draconian law, Internal Security Act (ISA), to detain protestors indefinitely without trial. The Hindraf case quickly gained international coverage. First it was India’s Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi but Malaysia’s Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Nazri Aziz told Karunanidhi to back off and mind his own business.

Now, you’ve the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom chairman Michael Cromartie who urged the administration of President George W. Bush to raise the matter with Kuala Lumpur and "insist that immediate measures be taken to protect sacred sites and prevent further destruction."The commission said it was "concerned" by recent Malaysian government actions against the ethnic Indian Hindu minority "curtailing their human rights, including the freedom of thought, conscience, and religion.”

Let’s assume the ruling government headed by Abdullah Badawi didn’t care about the welfare of the Indian Hindu. Why after 50 years since Independence only now the issue was blown out of proportion? Most political analysts will tell you the most loyal voters who have voted the current government without fails were the Indian Hindu. Chinese and Malay votes were splited for the ruling parties as well as the oppositions. So, can we conclude the Indian voters were so primitive mentality (stupid would be too harsh a word don’t you think?) that they’ve been deceived by their leader a.k.a. Samy Vellu since 1979?

Did you notice that suddenly theMalaysia Judiciary Scandal has taken a back-seat? Amazingly you saw theAttorney-General Abdul Gani Patail suddenly taken great interest in making sure the 31 Hindraf supporters detained and charged with attempted murder causing mischief and participating in an illegal assembly were denied bail by the Sessions Court. Never mind innocent life was lost or blown off to pieces using C4 in Mongolian Altantuya case. Never mind billions of dollars were used in PKFZ’s bailout. Never mind if the nation’s top judge (or judges?) was fixed by a lawyer with businessman and politician connections. What’s important is to ensure the momentum of the Hindraf case is kept in such a way that all the government ministers got their chances in bashing (the Hindraf) and gain publicity for political mileage.

Today its IGP’s (Inspector-General of Police) turn to be front-paged. And to continue the subsequent episode to divert all the people’s unhappiness towards the current government’s weaknesses, the Hindraf (Hindu Rights Action Force) somehow is amazingly link to the terrorist. Short of naming the terrorist group (is that you Osama bin Laden?) the IGP also hinted the potential of invoking the Internal Security Act (ISA). Just what’s the root of the plan and how could all the jigsaw puzzles fit into the picture? The nearest you can get was the theory (conspiracy one?) put on the table by Raja Petra Kamarudin (RPK), the author of Malaysia-Today. The article made perfect sense if the PM Badawi is actually running out of time (and popularity) to declare the next general election.

I love history and I scored the top grade when comes to its exam. History doesn’t lies but the fact could be twisted or even altered, the same way Japanese government tried to justify their World War II brutality. But in this Hindraf’s case, RPK has a simple yet copy-cat version of how the weak Abdullah Badawi administration will continue to win the next general election. Who said lazy students who copied his smarter classmate’s homework or even exam will never succeed in his/her life? And so the plan was to copy the Operasi Lalang occurred 20 years ago – previously engineered by former premier Mahathir.

Long plan short – the objective was to unite all the Malay under a roof, at least temporarily until after the next general election. History said Malay will unite when threaten. So a systematic plan was put in place to play with Malay’s mind and emotion started with the pig farmers in Malacca to trigger Malay’s anger. Then it was time to demolish a Hindu temple in Selangor to trigger Indian’s anger. Of course somebody has to announce that the ruling government actually does not need Indian and Chinese votes to stay in power.

You also saw ruling party UMNO’s member asked that all Christian crosses and statues at missionary schools be removed. Race-cards had been used successfully for the last 50 years and the same tactic can’t be any different to yield the same result.Mahathir was the master in this area and now his student, Abdullah Badawi, might as well re-use the same method again without the need to reinvent the wheel. But then maybe the whole Hindraf thingy was part of the chess-game.