Sucker’s Rally and Sucker’s Advice

People are confuse and can’t think straight. The game is pretty simple, just like the “Big or Small” game on the gambling table in Genting Highland Casino you either place your bet on “Big” or Small”. Nope, there’re no “Odd”, “Even”, “Specific Triples” or other combinations. Both “Big” and “Small” have probability of 48.6% of win. As strange as it looks that the dices could come out as “Big” or “Small” continuously for couple of times without fail before reverse, that’s how the game glued gamblers to the gambling table. Gamblers place their bets when they see the trends and ride on it. The moment “Specific Triples” appears gambler run helter-skelter because that’s the moment of uncertainties and the table is said to be well, “haunted”. If there’s one similarity between the above and stock markets that’s both are casinos, the game of probability.

The only difference is while one is mini-market the other is hypermarket. From nearly 12-year lows the Dow Jones made a spectacular gain of 9% or about 597-points in merely 4-consecutive days of wins to settle at above 7,000-level. Gamblers or punters are wondering if the worst is over. If you’re an institutional player who is playing with other people’s money such as pension funds, insurances funds, mutual funds etc, it doesn’t really matter because your objective was to claim the trophy of being the first to buy at the bottom. If your prediction was wrong so be it. It’s not that you’re going to jail for making the wrong bet. It wasn’t your money in the first. But if you’re betting your own hard-earned money then the wise thing to do is still to become a fence-sitter watching the game. It looks like this is another repeat of the sucker’s rally that happened numerous times already.

Sure, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C, stock) CEO Vikram Pandit triggered the much-awaited excitement when his memo about the company making $19 billion in the first two month of year 2009 was taken as the holy bible that the worst is over and the bottom is history. But the memo also said the revenues were excluding“externally disclosed marks” so that’s the question mark. Furthermore didn’t Bear Stearns and Bank of America were equally good in such marketing talks previously? In spite of the operating profit of X amount of dollars one should not fail to see there’re asset losses of X times 100 on the other page of the accounting book. If only it’s as easy as reporting good revenue and all the past losses would disappear as if it never happens. It’s still too early to conclude the worst is over. It’s like comparing this to the Malaysian team who cheers after they scored 1-goal after the complacent Brazilian team scored 20-goals and has no more moods to continue their Samba-game.

Another sucker advice came from former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who advised PM-in-waiting to choose his Cabinet line-up carefully as corrupt leaders could lead to the demise of UMNO (or rather Mahathir’s UMNO Baru?). It’s ironic that Mahathir has the cheek to give such advice considering it was him who designed the factory that produces lowest quality leader possible, not to mention the political model based on cronyism, corruption and nepotism which are still very much alive today. Need we remind him that under his 22-year rule the country flourishes with corruption so much so that his products now are only taking this practice to the next level? He knows that UMNO cannot survive without corruption simply because the survival of the Prime Minister depends on a handful of warlords who in turn are the dirtiest, stinkiest and the most corrupt in the history of the country’s government-ship since independence? So why was he talking nonsense about picking clean leaders?

Clearly this old man is not senile given that fact that he acknowledged the backdoor takeover of Perak State by his endorsed PM-in-waiting Najib was not done according to the law. Mahathir also said "UMNO-BN was too careless and did not wait for an assembly but instead asked the Ruler (Perak Sultan) to sack the menteri besar (chief minister)". It may be strange that he only opened his mouth after a month since the takeover occurred which led to the current constitutional crisis. Maybe Mahathir did not anticipated that the Pakatan Rakyat government would fight this battle to the end no matter what, not to mention the “coup” backfired with many Perakians are disgusted with the way it was done. So he decided to go with the trend and said UMNO-BN should have "followed the laws of the country, especially the constitution." But his opinion opened up some questions.

Does it mean the Sultan of Perak has actually erred when he followed blindly the “demand” from Najib Razak when he paid two visits to the Ruler? Mahathir’s statement that UMNO-BN asked the Ruler to sack the menteri besar (Pakatan Rakyat) seems to suggest so. Or could it be that Mahathir in his desperate attempt to repay Najib’s father by pushing the Razak junior to the throne is seeing a bigger problem - the country could be ruled by Najib’s wife, a scenario worst than having a sleepy head Abdullah Badawi driving the country on auto-pilot? The statement by Najib’s wife, Rosmah, that it is time his (Najib) destiny to lead the country couldn’t have come at a worse time when her husband is perceived to be the most tainted candidate in the history of UMNO. Maybe she should just shut-up if she still would like to see his husband sworn in as the sixth PM. Why the haste when everything is in order? Unless of course she smells the Badawi and Anwar’s recent “coincidence” lunch meeting is to be taken seriously.

In spite of what many think could be the reason why Mahathir went berserk whacking his own-picked successor Abdullah Badawi, the actual reason is none other than that Badawi did not keep his promise to push Mahathir’s own son to become the next rising star – UMNO Youth Chief. Instead Badawi allowed his son-in-law Khairi the free hand not only in running his administration but also to groom him as the next UMNO Youth Chief, indirectly telling Mahathir to fly kite. And this really sent Mahathir’s blood pressure to record high. In reality UMNO is rich with corrupt leaders but only a handful (if you can call that in the first place) of sincere leaders who can put country’s interest above self-interest. Mahathir is barking up the wrong tree and definitely beating around the bush if he thinks Najib would or could announce a corrupt-free team of Cabinet. There simply aren’t enough candidates for such tasks and the old man knows it. Maybe his statement was meant to raise warning to Najib that certain individuals are plotting for his son’s failure in the coming Mar UMNO election and Najib should do something about it.

Anyway UMNO has already reached the lowest level in the political game so much so that it does not only afraid of the opposition party’s influence but also theshadow of the marble plaque installed under the “Democracy Tree”. Only politicians with low intelligence would think by demolish such plague will the opposition lose peoples’ support and erase such a historical moment from voters’ mind. Thus Mahathir’s advice will not work because not only is UMNO corrupted, arrogant, power-crazy, a bully, practice gangsterism and still in denial syndrome but also filled with leaders without proper functioning brains.